We are still in search of our first prop win this week, but with one pending still and with the Monday game coming up, I am trying one last time to extract some profit from Sunday. Here are my two best prop picks.
Season NFL Props Record: 44-35-2
Will There Be a Score in the first 6:30?
I love this prop for several reasons, but the main one is that Bovada has the wrong side favored. The no is -110, while the yes is -120. Even though these teams meet one another a lot, the sportsbooks seem to think that it's more likely that someone gets a score early in this Sunday Night Football battle.
However, only once in the last three seasons has one of these two teams scored against one another that early in a game. It was two years ago, and it beat the first 6:30 clock by only 20 seconds. If it weren't for that Steven Hauschka field goal, these two teams would have a serious scoring drought in the beginning of games against one another.
Both defenses are still strong and I think being on the road hurts the Seahawks' offensive upside. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have looked pretty bad on offense outside of David Johnson and even this home game won't help them against a fast and deep Seattle defense.
There have been several times throughout the last couple of seasons where neither one of these teams even got on the board in the first quarter. This is why I love 'no' here, so add it to your NFL Picks this week.
Free NFL Prop Pick: No (-110)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
David Johnson O/U 27.5 receiving yards
We whiffed on this prop a week or two ago, but I am going right back at it for this one. There are a lot of touts pumping up the Seahawks this week and if the Cards are playing from behind, you can bet that Palmer's old noodle arm is going to be finding David Johnson on a lot of dump offs this week.
If Johnson can get some blocks and break some tackles, he could break off 28 yards in one catch, let alone several. Johnson is averaging over eight yards per target and 12.9 yards per catch this season, so as long as he gets his normal five or six catches, the over is a lock here.
Seattle has not been great at slowing down running backs when it comes to them catching passes out of the backfield. While they rank 2nd in rushing yards allowed coming in, they are in the middle of the pack when it comes to receiving yards to running backs. Johnson may be the best pass-catching back in the league, so expect him to go over his receiving yards mark tonight.