We look at a couple of top consensus bets for week 7, analyse public betting trends according to SBR Consensus Betting Polls and weigh in on how the NFL lines are taking shape as game day fast approaches.
Raiders vs. Jaguars
Top Consensus Bet: Raiders 68%
As game day fast approaches, the Raiders emerge the top consensus bet with 68% of the tickets taken and 74.19% of the money wagered thus far according to SBR Consensus Betting Polls. Keep in mind, almost 40% of overall betting comes down the wire typically on game day. That's potentially a hefty surge that could trigger dramatic final movement before closing doors.
What is intriguing about this matchup is way the NFL line is hopping since Westgate went to press with Advanced Lines (last week), in which Raiders were tipped to open at -2.5 on the road. Naturally, when the Raiders lost 26-10 to the Chiefs at home and the Jaguars came from behind to beat the Bears 17-16 at Soldier Field in week 6 NFL betting, sportsbooks reopened with the Jaguars as the slight home chalk at -1 or -1.5 (depending on the sportsbook of choice).
To be fair, that's quite the strong level of underdog betting on the Raiders and it doesn't look to be waning one bit. It's not often the public is entirely one-sided on a clear-cut underdog of modest quality – let's face it, the Raiders are a far cry from New England Patriots or Seattle Seahawks, both of which would scream HUUUGE value as road underdogs to NFL bettors thanks to their quality, depth, talent and proven championship credentials.
Already, some sportsbooks hang the Raiders on a PK line (Bovada and 5Dimes). Others have gone down to +1 (-105) on the NFL odds board such as Bookmaker. While some still have the Raiders at +1.5 (+100), such as market setting Pinnacle Sportsbook.
Sharp bettors look to be with the Jags on this game though, a consequence that might be holding the NFL line relatively steady for now and the Jags in favour. However, if public betting trends stay the same and are boosted by a surge in last minute betting on the Raiders it would diminish any sharp triggers and bookmakers will be forced to tip the scale dramatically towards the Raiders. Don't be surprised if this NFL line closes anywhere from a PK to Raiders laying a few points on the road. As such, betting now or on the day of the game could make all the difference on your week 7 NFL picks. If we were to offer up a betting tip it would be to wait and see which way the penny drops here before placing your bets.
Patriots vs. Steelers
Top Consensus Bet: Patriots 67.71%
The fact that the public is all over the Patriots shouldn't surprise anyone. It's par for the course in the recent game, so beloved are the New England Patriots as a whole from the talent, quality and depth contained on the bench to the adorable grumpiness of the coaching genius Bill Belichick.
Of course, in a matchup with the Steelers the Patriots normally wouldn't be road faves. Big Ben's injury ahead of this game, which sent him to the operating table and will likely see him out for a good stretch of the season, was all that was needed to turn this market tits up from an opening PK line in Westgate's Advanced Line offering to Patriots laying -7.5 (+104) earlier this week across sports betting platforms.
Despite the overwhelming public betting of the Patriots, which is complemented by 67.39% of the money as well, the NFL line has whittled down to -7 with many sportsbooks. BetOnline is offering Patriots at -7 (-108) and Steelers +7 (-112).
The reverse line movement featured has a lot to do with sharp betting triggers that tip the game towards the Steelers. Can the Steelers pull it off with Landry Jones under centre? Really? Bovada looks to be testing the waters with Patriots laying -8 (-110) while others are still holding on to the Patriots -7.5 with varying juice.
Where this NFL line closes depends on the volume of late betting that is sure to come down the wire and, more importantly, which way that volume tips. These are two teams that the public generally likes as do the sharps. So if we were to offer up a betting tip for week 7 NFL picks on this game, don't prevaricate. If you see an NFL line that you like grab it while you can now.