It’s another Thursday of NFL prop picks, and after a subpar Week 13 I am back with more NFL picks for TNF's Raiders-Chiefs matchup -- tonight our two plays come from Bovada sportsbook. NFL Season Props Record: 67-55-2.
Travis Kelce O/U 65.5 Receiving Yards
Rob Gronkowski is easily the best tight end in the league (when healthy), but the debate for second best seems to be open, and the Chiefs' Kelce might fit that mold. He had a bumpy sophomore season, but he is starting to some on lately in his third year in the league.
Kelce now has 100-plus-yard games in three straight weeks and now gets one of the worst defenses in the NFL on a short week. While Oakland has only allowed 57 catches to opposing tight ends, it has allowed over 12.5 yards per catch, one of the worst marks in that category among all 32 teams.
Even with top WR Jeremy Maclin seemingly ready to return, if the Chiefs have to throw the ball a lot in this game Kelce should be the biggest beneficiary. He has 32 targets in the last three weeks, and considering he too is averaging 12.5 yards per catch if he has another eight to 10 targets the 'over' is going to fly once again.
NFL Free Pick: 'Over' 65.5 (-125)
Best Line Offered Both Props: Bovada
Amari Cooper O/U 74.5 Receiving Yards
While the Raiders may end up ceding a lot of yards to Kelce, Cooper might end up with double the yards of Kelce and he only has a total of nine more yards on his Bovada total. The last time the Raiders played Kansas City, Cooper cleaned up with 10 catches for 129 yards, and I think he does it again here on the short week.
There is also the fact of the Chiefs giving up tons of yards to opposing receivers. They shut down everyone but Cooper in their first meeting with the Raiders, but on the season they have allowed 2,443 yards to opposing receivers, easily the worst mark of any team.
Cooper is talented enough to beat pretty much anyone matched up with him, but lately teams have been holding him to modest yards totals. He has two touchdowns in his last three weeks, but his last four games have been underwhelming with no more than 59 yards in a game.
I see that changing and this being a great chance to buy low on a very talented receiver. I doubt he sees 13-15 targets, but 10 would be enough.