We split a pair of NFL Picks on Thursday despite the sportsbooks not releasing prop odds until just hours before kickoff. Hopefully, you still have some time, because these are some great value plays from Bovada and BetOnline sportsbooks for Week 14!
Matt Stafford O/U 270 ½ passing yards
The Chicago Bears are playing for the offseason at this point, while the Lions are going to try and hang onto this division and make themselves a home team in the wildcard round of the playoffs. This game is going to need to be a win for this club, so despite whatever lead the Lions may have in this one, they are likely going to be piling on the points.
The biggest reason for that may be their lack of a solid running game. The Lions have relied on several different makeshift backfields this season and instead of running they have led to short intermediate passes to guys like Golden Tate and Eric Ebron.
More of that should be expected here against Chicago.
The Bears rank pretty well against quarterbacks, but a win against San Francisco last week helps that where they only allowed 39 yards passing the entire game. However, while their secondary hasn't allowed a ton of passing touchdowns, they are giving up the yards. Chicago allowed an average of 273 passing yards per game in their last seven if you take away that trash fest put up by the Niners. With the Lions at home in this one, look for Stafford to pass for close to 300 yards. In his last four home games, Stafford is averaging 262 passing yards per game, so as long as he hits a few more targets in this one, take the over for your NFL picks.
Free NFL Pick: Over 270 ½ (-115)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Philip Rivers O/U 285 ½ passing yards
Philip Rivers and the Chargers are desperately trying to claw their way back into the playoff conversation in the AFC and a win here against the Carolina Panthers would do just that. However, the Panthers' defense is still asleep in their Super Bowl nap, so the NFL odds makers see a highflying game against this suspect passing defense
Outside of Rivers' road games against trash defenses like the Falcons, Raiders and Colts, he has struggled passing the ball. In his other three road games, he is averaging 250 passing yards per game.
The Panthers have similar road/home issues on defense. On the road they are allowing quarterbacks 314 passing yards per game. However, when at home, that drops to 243 passing yards. It has something to do with the competition they have played at home, but they held Drew Brees to less than 300 passing yards in Carolina and I think they hold Rivers to less than 285 here.