NFL Week 12 Monday Night Prop Picks: Packers At Eagles

zach ertz eagles

Monday, November 28, 2016 7:37 PM GMT

We barely missed out on a 2-0 or 0-2 day of prop betting on Sunday, that’s how close things were, but after splitting another pair of NFL picks, I am back to release my two final prop plays from Bovada sportsbook for the Monday night football odds. NFL Season Props Record: 65-49-2

Eagles O/U 1.5 Field Goals

Philly's Caleb Sturgis has been a busy kicker this season, but last week against a tough Seahawks defense the Eagles did not kick a field goal for the first time all year. Sturgis also missed a couple heading into last week, so while he is far from a sure thing the NFL odds for the 'over' on this play say otherwise.

I am wondering what the odds opened at too, because right now the over is -175. However, despite this juice, it's a great play on the 'over' here for Sturgis

The Packers have allowed a pretty solid amount of field goals this season at 16. While they don't rank too highly on the amount of attempts allowed, Green Bay has allowed fewer than two field goals in just four of their 10 games this year.

On top of that, the Packers' defense has been getting better, while Philadelphia's offense is still struggling to convert in the red zone. The Eagles are only scoring a touchdown on 50 percent of their red zone chances this season -- hence why they kick an average of 2.7 field goal attempts per game. However, Sturgis has 18 of his field goals at less than 40 yards this season, so look for him to make two or three tonight.

NFL Free Pick: 'Over' 1.5 (-175)

Best Line Offered Both Props: Bovada

Zach Ertz O/U 50.5 Receiving Yards

While the Packers have been really bad against opposing wide receivers this season, they have been almost as bad against tight ends. Over their last three games, the Packers have allowed nearly 300 yards to tight ends, and with the way Carson Wentz is feeding the ball to Zach Ertz recently this makes for a strong 'over' play tonight.

Ertz has 26 targets in his last three games, and considering he had only 20 targets over his first five games you can see why this play is night. Averaging 9.6 yards per catch and over 7.3 yards per target this season, as long as the volume is there tonight, the 'over' is another strong play even with the juice. If Ertz continues to average more than seven yards per target, eight to 10 targets tonight should easily cash the over.

NFL Free Pick: 'Over' 50.5