NFL Week 12 - Expert Final Thoughts For Sunday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos Cheerleaders Dancing

Sunday, November 27, 2016 5:32 PM GMT

Chiefs Heading to Denver For Huge AFC West Showdown on Sunday Night Football. The loser of this game will be in some trouble heading into Week 13. Here's our final thoughts and free NFL Pick.

NFL PICKS SEASON ATS RECORD: 69-48-2

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (NBC, 8:30 p.m. EST)

Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS, 222 PS-187 PA) play their biggest game of the season to date when they face the Broncos (7-3 SU/ATS, 239 PS-189 PA) at Sports Authority Field (Desso GrassMaster) in Denver (Partly Cloudy, 10-15 mph Winds, Wind Chill 38°) Sunday night in a battle of AFC West 2nd-place teams and a game moved to Prime Time as part of the NFL's Flex Scheduling. Sportsbooks have Denver -3½-point favorites (BetDSI) with the Total from 38½ (BetDSI) to 39½ (BetOnline). On the Moneyline, the Broncos are -185 (5Dimes) with the Chiefs +166 (Pinnacle) and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Broncos up 3-point favorites in its Week 12 Advanced Line. These two meet again Christmas Day in Kansas City in a Week 16 date which could have both AFC West and Wild Card implications (KC -3, 2016 GOTY, SuperBook) .

Sunday Night Football, Series, Side and Totals Trends

The SNF Trends in this matchup see Denver 13-9 ATS at Home, 15-12 ATS as a Favorite on Sunday nights with the Chiefs—who've played 6 straight Unders averaging 39.0 ppg—4-5 ATS on Road and 2-4 ATS as an Underdog. Denver (#3 Total Defense, 18.9 ppg) is 9-3-1 ATS L13 overall, 6-1-1 ATS L8 at Home, 14-5-1 ATS L20 after a Bye but 4-11 ATS L15 Week 12 games. Kansas City is 4-0 ATS L4 after an ATS Loss, 3-8 ATS L11 vs. Home Teams with Winning Records, 4-9 ATS L13 on Grass and 0-6 ATS L6 after allowing 350+ Total Yards in its prior game (Buccaneers, 442 yards).

The Broncos (22/1 to win Super Bowl, Heritage) are 5-2 L7 meetings but the Road team has W5 ATS and the Underdog W4 ATS in a row in this series while the Under is 3-0-2 L5 in the Rocky Mountains, 7-2-2 L11 overall and 11-5-1 L17 Broncos Home games with Altitude being a factor. The Broncos were 21-3 SU in AFC West play heading into 2016 but are just 1-2 this season with Losses at San Diego and Oakland.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Picks and Final Thoughts, Picks

It's hard to get excited about the Chiefs (26/1 to win Super Bowl, Heritage)—who have WR Jeremy Maclin (Groin) listed Questionable—the way they plod upfield on Offense (#26 Total Offense, 22.2 ppg) in this Week 12 scheduling spot and the Site may be the biggest factor with the forecasted chilly Weather also helping Trevor Siemian and the Homeboys as well as possibly the Under. The L15 trips to Denver has seen the Chiefs go 3-12 SU, but one of those Wins was last season (KC 29-13) where the Chiefs led 22-0 after 3Q and won outright as 3½-point underdogs as Peyton Manning (4) and Brock Osweiler (1) combined to throw 5 Interceptions. This may also be a good game to buy the ½ point if backing Denver.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Broncos 20 Chiefs 15

Free NFL PICKS: Broncos -3½ -108

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle