We got back our two lost units from Thursday on Sunday with a couple of huge cashes in our NFL prop picks. Now we have a Monday night game full of value, and here are my two final props for Week 10. NFL season props record: 60-42-2.
Andy Dalton O/U .5 INTs Thrown
The essential question for this action is whether Dalton, the Bengals' QB, is going to throw a pick, and the NFL odds of -140 for the over seem to be indicating that Dalton very well could throw one to the Giants in the Week 10 finale.
Dalton has been great at not turning the ball over so far this season. He threw his first pick since Week 3 in the last game against the Washington Redskins, and now it appears he may be in danger of throwing a pick in consecutive weeks for the first time all season.
The Giants' defense has been great against quarterbacks this season. The G-Men have allowed a ton of yards but that doesn't tell the whole story. The Giants have given up only seven touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season. That ranks them fifth-best against quarterbacks in that department, New York is one of only four defenses that has more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed.
Dalton is already a substandard quarterback anyway, and his first season without offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is showing that. Dalton has thrown for a bunch of yards, but that doesn't win games. With Dalton on the road here, he is going to toss a pick. For his career, Dalton has a TD/INT ratio of only about 1.6/1 on the road, so the odds are in our favor even though he has cut down on the road picks over the past few seasons.
NFL Free Pick: 'Over' .5 (-140)
Best Lines Offered Both Props: Bovada
Gio Bernard O/U 72.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
The Bengals' two-headed monster in their backfield has been working well this season, and now they face off against a Giants' defense that is not that good against the run.
Bernard does have to deal with losing work to Jeremy Hill on first and second down, but if the Giants get out to a lead in this one we will be seeing a lot of Bernard on first and second down as well as on the field when Hill is out there too.
Bernard has double-digit rushing attempts in three straight games and he has added on some nice catches as well. Even though his receiving numbers are down lately, with the Giants' defense performing well against the pass dump-off throws might be the name of the game for Dalton and the Bengals' offense.
In his past four games, Bernard is averaging 86 yards from scrimmage, and I think he gets about that many here tonight.
NFL Free Pick: 'Over' 72.5 (-115)