NFL Week 1 Predictions - Packers & Jaguars Score To Stay Under

Green Bay Packers Fan

Sunday, September 11, 2016 4:25 PM GMT

Our veteran NFL analyst provides us with a betting preview on Sunday’s Green Bay and Jacksonville game. Be sure to read this extremely informative article concluded with a NFL pick

Rare Meeting in Packers/Jaguars Season Opener
Green Bay and Jacksonville will meet on Sunday in the season opener for both teams. The opening kickoff at EverBank Field in Jacksonville is slated for 1:00 PM ET. The last time these two teams met was on 10/28/2012 at Lambeau Field, and Green Bay walked away with a 24-15 win.

At the time of this writing (9/8), NFL week 1 point spreads at BetOnline has Green Bay as a 4.5-point road favorite. Additionally, their total on this game is 48.0. Just a heads up, BetOnline is offering players huge bonuses for this opening week of NFL games.

Noteworthy and Recent Team Trends
Green Bay is 6-1 ATS during their previous seven contests as a road favorite of 4.5 or more. On the other hand, since 2013, Jacksonville has gone an abysmal 1-8 SU&ATS as a home underdog of 4.5 or more.

Crucial Year for Gus Bradley
Gus Bradley is set to begin his fourth season as head coach in Jacksonville. Considering the Jaguars have gone a dreadful 12-36 (.250) throughout his first three years in charge, this shapes up to be a make or break season for Bradley. If he hopes to get his team headed in the right direction, they certainly need to be better prepared for their opening game. My point being, Bradley's Jaguars are 0-3 SU&ATS in season openers, and lost by a lopsided margin of 21.0 points per game.

On a positive note, Jacksonville's 5 wins a season ago was the most they had attained in a season since 2010. Bradley should have no excuse at this juncture. There's been an influx of young talent assembled on both sides of the ball, and most have experienced a significant amount of playing time over the past few years. Furthermore, Jacksonville drafted highly touted defensive players with their first two picks last May. Former Florida State star cornerback Jalen Ramsey was their top choice. The Jaguars followed that up by choosing linebacker Myles Jack out of UCLA. Both of these youngsters should provide an immediate impact.

Jordy Nelson Return
The season ending injury to Jordy Nelson occurring during a meaningless 2015 preseason game, became a crushing blow to Green Bay's offense. Nelson was coming off a 2014-2015 campaign which saw him haul in 98 receptions for 1519 yards and 13 touchdowns. You just don't replace those types of numbers on such short notice if at all.

Nelson's absence particularly affected quarterback Aaron Rodgers and #2 wide receiver Randall Cobb. Rodgers saw a somewhat sharp decline in his numbers, throwing for 560 yard less than the year before, and tossing 7 fewer touchdown passes. Compared to two years ago, Randall Cobb had 12 fewer pass receptions, 458 less receiving yards, averaged 3.6 yards per catch, and scored 6 fewer touchdowns. Cobb no longer was going up against the type of single coverage he excelled at following the loss of Nelson. Expect both players offensive statistics to revert back to where they were two seasons ago.

NFL Week 1 Totals System and Pick
Any home underdog of 5.0 or less, playing in their season opener, and there's a total of 45.0 or more, resulted in those games going 17-3 (85%) under the total since 1999.

I hate laying points on the road, and especially so this early. From my perspective, there's several reasons to like both sides. Nonetheless, I'm going to have a small lean on going under the number for one of my week 1 NFL predictions, and I'll base that mostly on the aforementioned highly successful betting system.

NFL Pick: Under 48
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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