We swung and missed on two team props for the Thursday night opener in what ended up being a bad night for me. However, I am bouncing back big time for the Sunday opener, because I’ve found two team props that are bound to get are team prop bankroll back to even on Sunday.
Vikings O/U 20.5 Points
Normally when we're talking about team totals in the NFL, the over is almost always a public play. I've made the mistake as well only to be thwarted by a road team with too high of a team total. However, this week is interesting, because the Vikings are seemingly the public fade this week, making their team total a bit too low, even for losing their starting quarterback a few weeks ago.
At only 20.5 points, the Vikings should be well above that once the game is over. Even though the game is on the road, the Titans are going to have to contend with a nasty Vikings defense still. With potential line problems, I would not be surprised to see the Vikings defense turn over the Titans at least once or twice.
Those could also easily lead to field goals or touchdowns, giving even more, juice to the over in this one being a sharp contrarian play. Think about it this way. It really doesn't matter who starts for the Vikings. Sure, Bridgewater being in there would be ideal, but in the end, the Vikings' offense revolves around running the football. If I recall, the Vikings still have Adrian Peterson, who is coming into the season fresh.
Converting on third down will hopefully be manageable for whomever is under center, so with the Titans still a bit questionable on defense, I expect Minnesota to have 21 or more in this one.
NFL Pick: OVER 20.5 (-120)
Colts O/U 1.5 Touchdowns 1st Half
The Colts are one of about half a dozen teams this season that could go 10-6 and win the division or they could go 6-10 and get everyone from the head coach to the GM fired midseason. It really is a wildcard year for the Colts and it already looked like it was trending towards 6-10 when Andrew Luck had an injury scare earlier in the preseason.
However, Week 1 is here and even though the Lions aren't a great team, they could still give a questionable offensive line some issues here in Week 1.
The Lions have a nasty push up front and if the defense is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, especially early in the game when the defenses are fresh, the Colts might find it hard to put the ball in the end zone twice. The Lions' offense has it's question marks as well, but their defense brings enough turnover and sack ability to the table to take the under here with the Colts. Luck was also sacked three times in the first preseason game, so I sense some settling for field goals in the first half of this one.
NFL Pick: UNDER 1.5 (-120)
As always, make sure you check out our Rating Guide for all the grades and ratings of sportsbooks you should trust with your prop wagering. We also have condensed it down to our Best Sportsbooks for your convenience!
Season Team Props Record – 0-2