I told you to be worried about Green Bay +3 at Tennessee last week and San Diego -4 at home vs. Miami -- both the Packers and Chargers lost outright. Here are three NFL spreads from SBR's best sportsbooks that I deem too risky in Week 11.
OK, on the surface this NFL point spread makes sense. These clubs are pretty even and a home team generally gets about 3 points in an NFL game so that line is right on. But from a rest perspective, the Bills have a huge advantage. They are coming off their bye, while Cincinnati lost at the New York Giants on Monday night. And if you watched that Bengals-Giants game, it sure didn't look like Cincinnati star receiver A.J. Green was right physically. Green seemed to come out of the game often with a bit of a limp. Green caught seven passes for 68 yards and was kept out of the end zone. In Cincinnati's five losses this year, Green averages 64.2 yards on 5.4 receptions. In the three wins and a tie, he is averaging 160.8 yards on 9.8 catches. Buffalo is on a three-game losing streak but played really well its final game before the bye, a tight loss in Seattle. Head coach Rex Ryan is ticked off, though, and has said there's open competition at right tackle, cornerback, nickelback and safety. At least the team is healthy. LeSean McCoy had been dealing with a hamstring problem but says he's 100 percent with the week off. The Bills played their best football when McCoy was rolling. In addition, receiver Percy Harvin says he's expected to be "full go" this week. He was signed just before the Seattle game off the street. Buffalo leads the NFL with 30 sacks and Bengals QB Andy Dalton has gone down 28 times.
Miami looked dead in the water at 1-3 but has won four in a row -- for the first time since 2008 -- on the back of Jay Ajayi, who has emerged as one of the NFL's best running backs over the past month. Who saw that coming? This will be an interesting dynamic for Miami, which picked off Philip Rivers four times in the fourth quarter last week in San Diego -- including the winning 60-yard INT return for a score by linebacker Kiko Alonso with a minute to go in a tie game. Instead of flying back across country a few more times, the Dolphins simply stayed in southern California this week. Sometimes when you take players out of their normal rhythms, they can struggle on the field. The Dolphins also stayed on the West Coast for a full week in 2004 when they had consecutive games at Seattle and San Francisco. The Dolphins split, losing at Seattle before winning in San Francisco. The great unknown here is the Rams as rookie No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff will make his NFL debut under center, replacing an ineffective Case Keenum. I have no idea if Goff is an upgrade over Keenum and neither do you. Maybe Goff plays like Dak Prescott or maybe he looks like Ryan Leaf. I tend to not bet on uncertainties.
If this game were under normal circumstances, I'd feel comfortable backing Seattle on NFL picks. I simply don't think these are normal circumstances for the Seahawks as they might be totally out of gas. Think about their past three games: an Oct. 30 last-minute loss in New Orleans; a Nov. 7 Monday night last-minute home win over Buffalo; and last Sunday a cross-country trip to New England on a short week in a Super Bowl XLIX rematch, with Seattle staging a goal-line stand in the final seconds in perhaps the most emotional regular-season win for that franchise under Pete Carroll. Wouldn't it be natural to have a bit of a letdown here? The Eagles have just one road win in five tries this season, but all four of those losses were by a touchdown or less. And Philly might have some newfound confidence off last week's 24-15 home win over NFC South-leading Atlanta. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz's unit held the Falcons' top-ranked offense to season lows in points, yards, plays, first downs and time of possession. That said, the Eagles are allowing 9.5 points at home this year and 24.4 on the road.