NFL Betting - Will Colts Collapse Hurt Their Public Profile in Week 7?

Andrew Luck

Tuesday, October 18, 2016 4:17 PM GMT

The Indianapolis Colts would normally be the popular NFL pick for Sunday's game against the Tennessee Titans. Does Houstons come from behind win to Houston change things?

Record: 12-7-1 ATS, 4-7 Totals

There's something magical about the Indianapolis Colts. Maybe it's the horseshoe on the side of the helmet, maybe it's that quarterback named Luck, but people can't stop putting Indianapolis (2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) in their NFL picks. According to our consensus reports, the Colts received majority support in four of their six games thus far, and a slim 45-percent minority in the other two.

And then you have the Tennessee Titans (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS). They also had a majority of bettors on their side for four of their six games, including some pretty sharp money in last week's game against the Cleveland Browns. But the Titans allowed Cleveland (+7.5 away) to earn a matador cover in a 28-26 victory. This sets up an interesting Week 7 matchup between these two AFC South rivals. Will the Colts be the public pick as 2.5-point road dogs on the NFL odds board?

Indy Cred

That's our default premise, but we need to re-evaluate things after Indianapolis spit the bit last week and lost 26-23 to the Houston Texans in overtime, just when the Colts looked like they were going to cover as 3-point road dogs. Indianapolis was up 23-9 halfway through the fourth quarter when everything went pear-shaped.

When these two teams met last year in Week 3, it was the Colts pulling in 65 percent of bettors as 3-point road faves. Andrew Luck and Marcus Mariota were the starting quarterbacks, as they will be again this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS). Indianapolis won that game 35-33, allowing another matador cover after taking a 35-27 lead with under three minutes remaining.

It looks like the sharps are already on the Titans this time around. Our early consensus reports for Sunday's game have 57 percent of bettors on Tennessee at –2.5. We're happy to recommend locking in the Titans at that price; even if the betting public comes in on the Colts over the weekend, Tennessee is already under the magic number 3 at most locations, and not likely to move substantially from there. You're on notice, Indy.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

Free NFL Pick: Tennessee –2.5

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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