We split a pair of NFL props to start the week on Thursday Night Football and now it's time to release my two best plays for Sunday. We have been crushing the props in the first half, so let's see if we can start our Sunday right with two more winners!
Philip Rivers O/U 220.5 passing yards
The Broncos' defense has been impressive once again this season. There is no debating that. However, if this game script happens like the sportsbooks seem to be suggesting, the Chargers are going to be throwing a lot in this game. Rivers only had 178 yards passing in Game 1 of this series, but in other games this season, Rivers has been throwing the ball all over the field.
If you eliminate his last game against the Broncos, Rivers has thrown for more than 300 yards in his last four games and with his receiving core looking healthier for this one, the best play here is to go over and hope he can get a few long passes to put us squarely in the over. That may be hard to do against the Broncos, but with this game being on the road, the Broncos might get out to an early lead, forcing the Chargers to throw the ball a ton in this one.
The Broncos have only allowed more than 220 passing yards once this season to the Falcons, but since the Chargers have seen them once this season, I see them making adjustments and getting Rivers to about 250 passing yards and a couple of touchdowns in this one. Take that into account when making your week 8 NFL prop picks.
Free NFL Pick: Over 220.5 (-125)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Spencer Ware O/U 25.5 receiving yards
My favorite value play of the week from Bovada is their prop offerings on Spencer Ware's receiving yards. He should be really busy with Jamaal Charles sitting out Week 8 and while he might see most of his work on the ground, Ware has good over value for a couple of key reasons.
The first one is that he has gone over 25 receiving yards four out of his six games. He went for 177 receiving yards in the first two games of the season without Charles and over his last two games he has four catches for a combined 86 yards. In the Chiefs' offense under Alex Smith, Ware is bound to see some dump offs in this one, especially against a poor Colts defense.
As we enter Week 8, the Colts rank as the fourth-worst team defending running backs catching passes out of the backfield. The Colts have allowed 37 catches for 372 yards and four touchdowns to running backs in the passing game this season and only the Steelers, Falcons and Chargers have been worse. Expect Ware to see three or four targets in this one and once again as always, one long run is all we need here against this poor defense.