NFL Betting Week 7: Last-Minute Bets and Predictions

San Diego Chargers making a play during a game

Saturday, October 22, 2016 5:25 PM GMT

Looking for last-minute NFL picks? We got ya covered. Here're our Week 7 predictions, including plays on the Bills at Dolphins, Chargers at Falcons and Ravens at Jets matchups.

SBR record YTD: 138-97-6 (-105 avg. odds); NFL 2016-17: 26-13 (-107 avg. odds)

Buffalo Bills (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins

Buffalo outscored the Dolphins 74-31 in two meetings last season, led by two efficient performances from quarterback Tyrod Taylor. Taylor tossed 4 touchdowns, 0 picks, and 458 yards on 32 of 41 passes combined in the victories. A lot of his success came via then-Dolphins cornerback Brice McCain, who he picked on relentlessly. McCain is in Tennessee now, but Miami's pass defense is still below par minus Pro Bowl safety Reshad Jones. Rex Ryan is 5-1-1 ATS at Miami as an NFL head coach, and he'll likely outfox rookie Adam Gase in this one for my NFL pick.

Free NFL Pick: Bills -3

Best Line Offered: at Matchbook

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San Diego Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-7)

San Diego quarterback Phillip Rivers plays straightforward defenses that come at him with simple planning. That's what Falcons head coach Dan Quinn offers. He runs a similar scheme he rolled out in his brief time at Seattle: a hybrid 4-3 system with many Cover-2 elements. Execution is key for it to work effectively, not trickery and confusion. Whether it works Sunday, may be up to how well Rivers is throwing.

The longtime San Diego signal-caller thrashed Quinn's Seahawks in their only head-to-head encounter, winning 30-21 as a 5-point home underdog in 2014—a year when Seattle won the NFC Championship. Rivers threw for 284 yards and 3 touchdowns on 28 of 37 passes. The Falcons will likely win, but Rivers alone should make it competitive.

Free NFL Pick: Chargers +7

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-1)

The Jets are sinking fast. They benched quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick for Geno Smith, hoping the backup can right the ship. Nonetheless, this team is loaded with problems Smith won't have any say in fixing, particularly on defense. The secondary, for example, gives up 290.3 passing yards per game (28th in the NFL).

Only two teams since 1970 have made the playoffs after starting the year 1-5, and Jets players know that. They are one of the oldest, veteran teams in the league, and at this point, some players may start to peddle back a bit due to a seemingly already-lost season.

This is Smith's first significant playing time since a Week 8 matchup against the Raiders in 2015 when Fitzpatrick left after the first series with a banged-up hand. Smith was 27-of-42 for 265 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick in the 34-20 loss. The Jets were 3-10 SU and 6-7 ATS with Smith under center in 2014. The offense averaged a paltry 17.7 points. Smith does not instill much confidence on offense, and until the defense shows signs of life, New York is a play-against team.

Free NFL Pick: Ravens ML (-104)

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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