Our weekly recap of NFL betting action begins as it should with TNF, the clash between the Texans and Patriots. Sunday NFL betting action and MNF will follow as the results seep and markets reconcile.
Week 3 NFL Underway
One game down, 15 more to go to wrap up week 3 NFL betting. If you missed the action, we recap the game against the NFL odds below. Be sure to also check out our game-by-game NFL picks for the weekend.
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Houston Texans 0 vs. New England Patriots 27
Opening Line: Texans -2.5, O/U 41
Closing Line: Patriots -1, O/U 38.5
Consensus ATS Betting: 60.59% Texans
The Patriots improve to 3-0 SU and ATS on the season without Brady, who has one game left to serve his four-game suspension. But who cares about Brady right now. The never say die attitude of the Patriots knows no bounds.
It was supposed to be nigh impossible – well, improbable might be more apt – for rookie Jacoby Brissett to lead the Patriots to victory in his first NFL start, in a short week and against a legitimate playoff contender Houston Texans. Tale told, it wasn't even close. Certainly, nowhere near the nominal spread that the bookies trotted out at open doors (Texans laying -2.5) and, more importantly, nowhere near the spread the game eventually closed on with the Patriots laying just a measly point at home.
Ha. The 27-0 victory made a mockery of the NFL betting line as the Patriots covered by26 points. Not least, all those that were convinced this was one obstacle too many for Bill Belichick to overcome were left agog (Texans had 60.59% of tickets wagered and almost 70% of the money that came down the wire). Belichick obviously didn't think so because not only did he have enough confidence in Brissett he also opted to go with Julian Edelman as his backup quarterback rather than sign a viable quarterback for the foreseeable. If that's not telling, what is?
Sunday NFL Betting Recap
Sunday prove to be a big day for the books as nine of the consensus bets – Arizona Cardinals, Pittsburgh Steelers, NY Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Tians, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers and San Francisco 49ers all lost straight up.
Overall, the NFL betting trend for week 3 is as follows:
WEEK 3 Trends vs. the ODDS
Favourites vs. Underdogs: 9-6 SU and 7-8 ATS
Home vs. Away: 9-6 SU and 9-6 ATS
OVER vs. UNDER: 8-7
Sunday, September 25, 2016
Cardinals 18 vs. Bills 38
Opening Line: Cards -6, O/U 47
Closing Line: Cards -5.5, O/U 48
Consensus ATS Betting: Cardinals 62.24%
The outcome of this game was the most surprising and represented one of the best reconciliations for bookmakers. Cardinals betting was strong with 62.24% of the tickets taken across public betting platforms. However, there was conspicuous reverse line movement with the Cardinals dropping for -6 to -3.5 before closing back up at -5.5. That was most likely triggered by some sharp betting on the Bills – represented by 37.76% of the tickets taken and 60.03% of the total amount wagered on this game. That being said, even the sharpest NFL bettor probably didn't expect the Bills to cover by a whopping 20.5 points when all was said and done.
Raiders 17 vs. Titans 10
Opening Line: PK, O/U 48
Closing Line: Raiders -1.5, O/U 47
Consensus ATS Betting: Titans 57.14%
By closing doors the Raiders were bet up to road favourites despite Titans emerging as the consensus bet with 57.14% of the tickets. That reverse line movement was triggered by late sharp betting on the Raiders. Tale told, this proved to be the second game of the day that went against public betting significantly.
Browns 24 vs. Dolphins 30 OT
Opening Line: Dolphins -7, O/U 42.5
Closing Line: Dolphins -10, O/U 42.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Dolphins 58.94%
Although this game reconciled in favour of the Dolphins and public betting trends that marked 58.94% of the tickets recorded with contributing sportsbooks at SBR consensus betting polls, the Browns had plenty of chances to turn the table. Sprayed missed field goals proved their downfall, including a missed attempt at the end of regulation time that would have given Cleveland the first W on the season. Nevertheless, the Browns proved to be the largest underdogs to cover in week 3.
Ravens 19 vs. Jaguars 17
Opening Line: PK, O/U 47.5
Closing Line: Ravens -2, O/U 45
Consensus ATS Betting: Jaguars 60.43%
Jacksonville Jaguars are now 0-3 SU on the season, failing to come through for their backers as the 60.43 consensus bet in week 3 against the Ravens. In no way shape or form were the Ravens the consensus bet – they had barely 40% of spread bets, 30% money line bets and, overall, total dollars was represented by 12.25%. A late field goal to seal the narrow 19=17 win was needed for the Ravens to win straight up, but they won't be apologising. Besides, this proved to be one of the games the books reconciled well.
Lions 27 vs. Packers 34
Opening Line: Packers -8, O/U 48
Closing Line: Packers -6.5, O/U 47.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Lions 64.78%
For the first time in 2016 the Packers weren't so popular in public betting circles. Most likely, bettors were disappointed by Green Bay's loss to Minnesota last week. Lions emerged as the 64.78% consensus bet with 62% of the money risked on this game, a lean largely prompted by early sharp betting on the Lions most likely. Indeed, it forced the line down to a closing -6.5 when all was said and done and which the Packers covered only just in the 34-27 win.
Broncos 29 vs. Bengals 17
Opening Line: Bengals -3.5, O/U 41
Closing Line: Bengals -3.5, O/U 41.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Broncos 54.09%
The Broncos emerged as the 54.09% consensus bet by closing doors despite all the uncertainty surrounding Trevor Siemian in his first road start. Will he be up for the tough task in Cincy? If this was the rookie's test, he did very well in the 29-17 win that puts the Denver Broncos at the top of the AFC race with a perfect 3-0 SU mark along with long-time rivals New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens – all perfect thus far on the season.
Vikings 22 vs. Panthers 10
Opening Line: Panthers -6.5, O/U 42
Closing Line: Panthers -6.5, O/U 42.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Panthers 58.40%
If there were a gauntlet throwing win, this was one of them. Sam Bradford with just a few weeks in Minnesota leads the Vikings to the 22-10 upset over last year's Super Bowl runners-up. For the third time this season the Panthers emerge as the consensus bet and for the second time they fail to live up to public perceptions (week 1 they emerged the consensus bet over the Broncos). Of course, defense deserves much of the plaudits for this outcome as they sacked Newton eight times. Truth be told, the Vikings didn't even need the points as they covered with 18.5 points differential.
Redskins 29 vs. Giants 27
Opening Line: Giants -4, O/U 47.5
Closing Line: Giants -3.5, O/U 47
Consensus ATS Betting: Redskins 54.31%
This was a right cracker that could have gone either way as the close score reveals. To be fair, the Giants had it in the bag and the late interceptions thrown by Eli Manning settled the game in favour of the Redskins, who proved to be the consensus bet in public circles with 54.31 of tickets written on them.
Rams 37 vs. Bucs 32
Opening Line: Bucs -3.5, O/U 42
Closing Line: Bucs -3.5, O/U 40.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Bucs 53.69%
This game had a little bit of everything, from weather drama and delays to poor play calling and time management galore that resulted in the Bucs losing 37-32 at home. Not only were almost 54% tickets written on the Bucs but they also represented almost 80% of the money risked on this game. Bit of a loss for public bettors. All of a sudden, the Rams are 2-1 SU and ATS on the season and top of the NFC West with the Seattle Seahawks. Tampa Bay Buccaneers go into a bye week while the Rams look ahead to a date with the mighty Cardinals who were laid to waste in Buffalo. Early money is all over the Rams in this clash, which is hardly surprising given the outcome of week 3. Tread carefully with your NFL picks next week.
49ers 18 vs. Seahawks 37
Opening Line: Seahawks -11, O/U 42
Closing Line: Seahawks -10.5 O/U 40.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Niners 61.44%
Who is buying what the Niners are selling, seriously? Niners recorded 61.44% of tickets in week 3 and almost 60% of the money. Intriguingly, the Niners had 73% of money line bets as well. Look, a bet on the Niners to potentially cover the 10.5 spread on the road made sense given how slow out of the gates the Seahawks came out this season. A win at Century Link outright though? That's ballsy and optimistic betting, which, unfortunately, didn't pay out to the delight of bookmakers across sports betting platforms.
Jets 3 vs. Chiefs 24
Opening Line: Chiefs -4, O/U 44.0
Closing Line: Chiefs -3, O/U 44.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Jets 51.91%
The Jets were the consensus bet with 51.91% of tickets written and they were also the popular straight up bet as road underdogs with almost 75% of the tickets written. The money was tipped towards the Jets as well with 65% approximately. So across the board the Jets were the unanimous bet. Everybody couldn't have been more wrong. Then again, who could have predicted the eight-gazillion interceptions thrown by Ryan Fitzpatrick on the day? Those practically served up the win for the Chiefs.
Chargers 22 vs. Colts 26
Opening Line: Colts -3, O/U 50.5
Closing Line: Colts -1.5, O/U 51.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Colts 52.55%
This was one of the most topsy-turvy games of the week that could have gone either way. Although the Colts eventually came through in the 26-22 win, missed points and field goals could have served up the win for the Chargers which would have gone against the consensus betting polls (52.55% ticket were on the Colts). This game reconciled in favour of the NFL betting trends but, admittedly, with a lot of Luck (pun intended).
Steelers 3 vs. Eagles 34
Opening Line: Steelers -5.5, O/U 46.5
Closing Line: Steelers -4, O/U 46.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Steelers 64.99%
This was the biggest shocker in public betting circles. Since open doors the Steelers were taking most of the spread and money line bets. When all was said and done they closed with 64.99% of the tickets. In spite of the one-sided betting the line whittled down to Steelers -4, which is an indication of sharp money triggering the negative line move against the Steelers despite the proportion of betting in their favour. Eagles emerged with significant sharp money (almost 64% of dollars wagered), which proved to be the smart bet. Indeed, the Eagles didn't even need the points as they covered by 35 points—marking the biggest differential versus the spread in week 3 NFL betting.
Bears 17 vs. Cowboys 31
Opening Line: Cowboys -4, O/U 45.5
Closing Line: Cowboys -6.5 O/U 45
Consensus ATS Betting: Cowboys 57.64%
The Dallas Cowboys emerged as the consensus bet with 57.64% of the wagers taken but, curiously, the Bears had a whopping 61.93% of the money risked on this primetime Sunday Night showdown. Tale told, the Cowboys covered with enough to spare (7.5 points) in the 31-17 win at AT&T that marked Dak Prescott's first home win for the Cowboys and second overall win as a rookie starter.
MNF to be updated on Tuesday following game conclusion