NFL Betting: Texans’ 5-3 Record Deceptive - Is QB Brock Osweiler A Liability?

Texans QB Brock Osweiler in field

Thursday, November 3, 2016 4:19 PM GMT

The Houston Texans head into their Bye Week with a 5-3 record and sit atop the AFC South but with new QB Brock Osweiler putting up some ugly passing numbers and the team showing a weakness, is their trouble ahead in H-Town? Let’s look at what the QB has done so far in Houston and offer up a future NFL pick.

Are the Houston Texans in Precarious Position Despite Their 5-3 Record?

Sometimes numbers don't lie, sometimes numbers are deceiving and sometimes numbers—as in a number of dollars committed—can be really frustrating for NFL teams. And so seems to be the case with Brock Osweiler (4-4-1 ATS Home Favorite) and the AFC South-leading Houston Texans (5-3 SU). The numbers that don't lie in the case of Osweiler are some horrific Passing ones—especially for a new QB on his new team and one on which the franchise spent a pretty penny ($72 million).

The 25-year-old Texans QB and Arizona State product has the three of the four lowest passing yards games in the NFL this season (minimum 40 attempts) and Osweiler registered the second-fewest passing yards ever (131 yards) with a minimum of 40 attempts against his former teammates, the Broncos in a 27-9 week 7 road loss on MNF (3.1 ypp) with his biggest gainer coming on a questionable pass interference call. The only QB with less Passing Yardage with 40+ attempts was the Giants' Jesse “The Bachelor” Palmer back in 2003 with 110 yards.

But to be fair to Osweiler, Houston played the Patriots, Vikings, and Broncos in those Road dates, all teams with pretty good Defenses. So, “The Struggle” may be real for Osweiler (48.2 QBR) and the Texans on the Road (0-3 SU/ATS) where they've scored just 22 points in a Home-loaded, 1st Half schedule (5 Home games, Bye first 9 weeks) which saw Houston get Home Wins vs. four mediocre teams (Bears, Titans, Jaguars, Lions) and the Chiefs.

Texans Problems Scoring on Road, Defense May Become a Problem in 2nd Half?

The Texans aforementioned 22 Road points include a garbage-time TD and hopeful franchise QB Osweiler (9 TDs, 9 INTs) has a miserable completion rate (59.3%) and has thrown for just 1,719 yards despite having great Skill players like DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Lamar Miller and CJ Fiedorowicz. And JJ Watt and the Texans may have revealed a weakness against the Rush, with CJ Anderson and Devontae Booker and the Broncos gashing the Houston Defense for 190 yards on 33 rushes (5.8 ypc).

But to say the 2nd Half schedule for the Texans—who defeated the Lions 20-13 in Houston in week 8 as Osweiler was 20-29 for 186 yards and who are off in Week 9—is loaded with tough Road games would be wrong with dates at Jacksonville, Green Bay and Indianapolis on the slate as their AFC South-mates the Jaguars, Colts and Titans have hardly dominated at Home (5-8 SU combined). And Houston gets one less Road game with its Week 11 (Nov. 21) date against the Raiders—and the last game in the 2016 International Series—in Mexico City (OAK -2½, 2016 Games of the Year, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook).

Fade Texans On The Road Futures Book Pick: Packers -7½ (Week 13) (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

NFL Overall Picks Record: 57-35-2