Week 2 is almost in the books and we weigh in on the action and analyse the outcomes in the context of NFL betting lines and odds. In short: who were the winners and losers in week 2?
NFL Betting Week 2 Recap
Week 2 is almost in the books save for MNF. This is how things went down by the stats. Below, we run down the action for each and every game.
Home vs. Away: 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS
Favorites vs. Underdogs: 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS
Over vs. Under: 8-7
The Biggest Favorites to cash SU and ATS
Carolina Panthers -12.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers (score 46-27)
New England Patriots -6.5 vs. Miami Dolphins (score 31-24)
Denver Broncos -6.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (score 34-20)
The Biggest Underdogs to cash SU and ATS:
Titans +6 vs. Lions (score 16-15)
Rams +5.5 vs. Seahawks (score 9-3)
Falcons +4 vs. Raiders (score 35-28)
Thursday, September 15th, 2016
NY Jets 37 vs. Buffalo Bills 31
Opening Line: Bills -2.5, O/U 42.5
Closing Line: Bills -1, O/U 40.0
Consensus ATS Betting: Jets 55.63%
The New York Jets roughed up the Bills in a Thursday Night football showdown well worth the hype. Indeed, of the week 2 NFL betting slate, this NFC East matchups featured some serious line hopping across sports betting platforms. Tale told, it wasn't even as close as the market called it as the Jets won 37-31.
Originally, the Bills opened as the -2.5 home chalk. Briefly they crept up to -3 but almost immediately dropped significantly by midweek, down to -1 and, then, to a pick'em before dipping into underdog territory (then, the Jets were laying -1 to -1.5) before the NFL line moved back and closed either on a pick'em or Bills -1, depending on your choice sportsbook. This flurry of activity was initially triggered by one-sided early money going to the Jets sharpish. Once the NFL line dropped significantly, it appears buyback on the Bills was triggered – something that often happens when bookies move off key numbers. By closing doors, the Bills emerged with 71.52% of the money risked on this game but only 44.37% of the spread bets. The Jets were the consensus ATS bet with 55.63% of tickets taken but with less than 30% of the money risked on the game.
Sunday, September 18th, 2016
Cincinnati Bengals 16 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Opening Line: Steelers -3, O/U 47.5
Closing Line: Steelers -3.5, O/U 48
Consensus ATS Betting: Steelers 53.87%
The Pittsburgh Steelers came through for NFL bettors as the clear-cut home favorites in a 24-16 triumph at Heinz Field Arena. Importantly, the Steelers improve to 2-0 SU on the season in a very tough AFC North. For the most part, betting on this game was split down the middle – which is understandable considering the quality of both teams. Intriguingly, with the Steelers gaining a slight edge in consensus betting polls according to SBR books moved the line by half-a-point, a move that triggered some late buyback on the Bengals. Tale told, the market got this game right.
Tennessee Titans 16 vs. Detroit Lions 15
Opening Line: Lions -5.5, O/U 47.5
Closing Line: Lions -6, O/U 48
Consensus ATS Betting: Titans 51.73%
The Lions were coming off a high in Indianapolis, a 39-35 upset win in week 1 that saw the Lions open as the 5.5 home chalk on the NFL odds board. Impressionable early NFL betting bet up the Lions to -6, clearly influenced by the outcome in week 1. Intriguingly, the move to 6 points triggered late betting on the Titans, so much so that the visitors emerged as the small consensus betting favorite with 51.73% tickets taken. Tale told, the game was much closer than the market indicated and, to be fair, the Lions botched the home win.
Baltimore Ravens 25 vs. Cleveland Browns 20
Opening Line: Ravens -2.5, O/U 43.5
Closing Line: Ravens -4.5, O/U 42
Consensus ATS Betting: Browns 51.09%
No RGIII. No problem. Josh McCown was more than up for the task as he lifted the Browns to a considerable lead in the game. At one point, the Browns were ahead by 20 points. The worst thing that could happen then happened. McCown suffered an injury and although he stayed in the game he was clearly not the same player. The Ravens turned the game around and emerged as the 25-20 winners, only just getting both the SU win and cover. For a second straight week the Browns were the consensus bet in public NFL betting circles only to come up short.
Dallas Cowboys 27 vs. Washington Redskins 23
Opening Line: Redskins -3, O/U 44.5
Closing Line: Redskins -3.5, O/U 47
Consensus ATS Betting: 50-50
No real surprises here. With the Cowboys and Redskins both sporting an 0-1 SU record going into week 2, the public was understandably split down the middle. On one hand, a rookie quarterback. On the other hand, a quarterback desperate to prove he merits being the starter. One of the most interesting moves on the NFL odds board was the total, swelling from 44.5 to 47. Tale told, this game proved to be one of eight games that challenged the total and cashed over.
New Orleans Saints 13 vs. NY Giants 16
Opening Line: Giants -4, O/U 51.5
Closing Line: Giants -4, O/U 54.5
Consensus ATS Betting: 50-50
Speaking of total challenges, the clash between the Saints and Giants closed on the highest total of the week – a whopping 54.5 points. That had a lot to do with the last time this pair met at the Superdome last season, a game in which Drew Brees and Eli Manning combined for 13 touchdowns. As well, last week's shootout between the Saints and Raiders contributed to the overwhelming OVER betting on this game. Tale told, the total wasn't even threatened in a narrow 16-13 victory over the Giants at MetLife. The teams took the lessons of week 1 and tightened up on the defensive-side of the ball, mainly. The public, however, fell hook, line and sinker for the NFL betting market. Ouch.
San Francisco 49ers 27 vs. Carolina Panthers 46
Opening Line: Panthers 13.5, O/U 48.5
Closing Line: Panthers -12.5, O/U 44.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Panthers 53.92%
For a second straight week the Panthers emerged as the consensus bet according to SBR betting polls. This time they came through as they rebounded nicely following the heartbreaking loss at Mile High. Of all the games on the NFL odds board in week 2, this was the only game that featured a double-digit spread. Always a risky play especially considering the way the Niners manhandled the Rams in week 1. However, the market got it right as the Panthers covered with plenty to spare.
Miami Dolphins 24 vs. New England Patriots 31
Opening Line: Patriots -4, O/U 42.5
Closing Line: Patriots -6.5, O/U 42
Consensus ATS Betting: Dolphins 50.43%
Despite serving up the upset at University of Phoenix Stadium and every NFL betting expert and his mama talking up Jimmy Garoppolo and the Patriots, the Dolphins emerged as the slight betting favorite in public circles (Dolphins closed with 50.43% of tickets). Huh? They even closed with 58.68% of the money risked on this game. Intriguingly, the NFL line moved against the Dolphins as the Patriots improved from -4 to -6.5 by closing doors. When a line moves against the flow of public betting, it could be an indication of sharp betting that triggers a reverse line movement. As it went down, the Patriots did take the commanding lead over the Dolphins in the first half with Garoppolo playing some inspired football. Heck, he made it look so easy. Things turned against the Patriots following an injury to Garoppolo that ruled him out for the rest of the game. It was an opportunity for the Dolphins to turn the game on its head and very nearly win. Patriots were lucky to escape and only just covered the closing spread.
Kansas City Chiefs 12 vs. Houston Texans 19
Opening Line: PK, O/U 43.5
Closing Line: PK, O/U 43
Consensus ATS Betting: Texans 54.35%
Considering the events of week 1 and both teams sporting a 1-0 SU record, it's not surprising this game was trading on a pick'em for most of the week. Granted last term the Chiefs shredded the Texans in the playoffs, but this time the Texans were trotting out a different quarterback. Evidently, the public was buying what the Texans were selling as they emerged with 54.35% of tickets taken.
Seattle Seahawks 3 vs. Los Angeles Rams 9
Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5, O/U 39.5
Closing Line: Seahawks -5.5, O/U 38
Consensus ATS Betting: Seahawks 57.77%
The Rams recorded their third straight win over the Seattle Seahawks to the chagrin of bookies and NFL betting fans in a narrow 9-3 victory. Of all the games on the NFL odds board, this one sported the lowest total at closing doors. Clearly, that was nowhere challenged, falling well under in a game that featured ZERO touchdowns by either team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 vs. Arizona Cardinals 40
Opening Line: Cardinals -7.5, O/U 50
Closing Line: Cardinals-7, O/U 49.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Bucs 53.56%
Arizona Cardinals bounced back in a big way over a side that was talked up something huge following a week 1 victory over the Atlanta Falcons on the road. Clearly, the hype made an impression on bettors as the Bucs emerged the slight consensus betting favorite with 53.56% of the tickets taken. Interestingly, the Bucs also emerged with 60.82% of the money risked on this game according to SBR Consensus betting polls from participating sportsbooks. The game closed on one of the highest totals of the week after the Saints vs. Giants but it wasn't breeched as the game closed just UNDER 49.5 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars 14 vs. San Diego Chargers 38
Opening Line: Chargers -2.5, O/U 48
Closing Line: Chargers -3, O/U 47.5
Consensus ATS Betting: Jaguars 57.95%
The Jacksonville Jaguars were talked up something huge after very nearly beating the Packers in week 1, which, arguably, prompted many NFL bettors to pound the Jaguars in week 2 against the Chargers on the road. The fact that the Chargers imploded spectacularly in week 1 probably played a hand in this sentiment. Tale told, Philip Rivers and the Chargers took the Jaguars to the tool shed and ripped them apart. The game wasn't even as close as the NFL betting market suggested.
Atlanta Falcons 35 vs. Oakland Raiders 28
Opening Line: Raiders -6.5, O/U 47
Closing Line: Raiders -4, O/U 48
Consensus ATS Betting: Raiders 57.32%
To many NFL betting experts and pundits alike this was a surprising result – Falcons defeating the Raiders 35-28 marked one of the week's upsets. Not only by the NFL odds but also by perception. After all, the Raiders were being served up as potential playoff contenders this season and were just coming off an eyebrow-raising win over the Saints in week 1. Consider the Raiders haven't struck an audible chord in the regular season in recent memory, it shouldn't be so surprising. They've yet to back up the hype meaningfully. Where this game didn't fail to disappoint was on the scoreboard. It lived up to the expectation set by one of the week's highest totals and cracked the closing 48-point total.
Indianapolis Colts 20 vs. Denver Broncos 34
Opening Line: Broncos -4, O/U 44
Closing Line: Broncos -6.5, O/U 47
Consensus ATS Betting: Colts 52.32%
The NFL betting on this game was lopsided with the Colts taking in 52.32% of the tickets and 72.42% of the money. Despite this overwhelming lean towards the Colts in the NFL betting markets the Broncos improved from -4 to -6.5, thanks largely down to the poised play of Trevor Siemian in week 1 that complimented a Denver defense that won the Super Bowl last term. Tale told, the game reconciled in favour of the market as the Broncos covered as the -6.5 home favorites. As the saying goes, good teams win. Great teams cover.
Green Bay Packers 14 vs. Minnesota Vikings 17
Opening Line: Packers -3.5, O/U 44
Closing Line: Packers -1.5, O/U 42
Consensus ATS Betting: Packers 64.77%
Sunday Night Football served up the NFC North clash between the Packers and Vikings, a game that was firmly cornered with the visitors on the NFL odds board. In fact, the NFL betting on the game was lopsided with the Packers taking in 64.77% of the tickets and a whopping 86.77% of the money. To be fair, the Packers missed an early field goal that could have turned the outcome of this game on its head. As it is, the game reconciled in favour of the home underdogs in a 17-14 triumph at U.S. Bank Stadium's first-ever game. The Vikings became the second of three home underdogs in week 2 (Rams being the other one) to come through with both the SU and cover win for their backers.
Monday, September 19, 2016
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
Opening Line: Bears -1, O/U 43
Closing Line: N/A
Consensus ATS Betting: N/A
Recap to follow the game conclusion.