Sundays have been our best day to turn a profit with our NFL Props and with several late-breaking NFL Odds from Bovada sportsbook, I am ready to release my two best plays this week.
NFL Season Props Record: 64-48-2
Tom Brady O/U 293 ½ passing yards
The Tom Brady F-U Tour continues this week as the Patriots battle one of the teams that Brady loves to beat up on, the New York Jets. The Jets have had a very poor passing defense all season and Brady could very easily exploit that this week for several reasons.
The first is he'll have his two tight ends back for this game. Martellus Bennett and Rob Gronkowski are both ready to roll this week, which should add some vertical passing to the Patriots' offense that they have missed lately. Instead of Brady focusing more on intermediate routes to Julian Edelman, Brady now has the option of going downfield when his tight ends get in mismatches against linebackers.
The Jets have also allowed over 2700 yards passing this season, but over the last two weeks they have improved some. They allowed less than 200 passing yards to the Rams and Dolphins, but let's be honest, that isn't too hard these days. Brady and the Patriots' passing attack bring a lot more to the table, especially with their skill players mostly healthy. Take the over here and add it to your NFL Picks.
Free NFL Pick: OVER 293 ½ (-125)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
LeGarrette Blount O/U 66 ½ rushing yards
This is somewhat of a hedge against my play above, but it could just as easily cash the over as Brady and his passing yards. LeGarrette Blount should be heavily used in this one to protect the lead that the Patriots are almost assuredly going to build in this game and Blount's rushing yards are simply too low if he is getting 20 carries this week.
In games where Blount has 19 or more carries, Blount is averaging 103 yards per game, so it's not like 66 ½ is going to be hard for him to achieve with his potential usage in this one.
The other great thing about this play is that even though the Jets have been pretty good against the run this season, lately it's been quite the opposite. They allowed 140 yards to the Dolphins followed by 104 yards last week to the Rams. Look for Blount to post big numbers, so despite the juice, take the over.