NFL Betting: N.Y. Giants vs Green Bay Packers Win Totals

Odell Beckham Jr. Of The Giants

Saturday, October 8, 2016 12:00 AM GMT

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are a popular NFL pick, but the OVER might be the better choice for Sunday night's game at Lambeau against the New York Giants.

Record: 6-5 ATS, 4-5 Totals

Rumors of Aaron Rodgers' demise have been greatly exaggerated. Yes, Rodgers was a league-average quarterback for the Green Bay Packers last year, according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders. And yes, the two-time MVP got off to another slow start this year. But after his Week 3 performance against the Detroit Lions – four touchdown throws and zero turnovers – it's obvious that Rodgers still has what it takes.

Against the right teams, that is. Detroit has the least efficient defense in the league through Week 4; Green Bay's opponent for Sunday Night Football, the New York Giants, are somewhat better at No. 21 overall. Will that be enough to make the Giants the right NFL pick for Week 5? They're 7.5-point road dogs as we go to press, and our consensus reports show a slight majority of bettors on the G-Men.

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Am I Blue?


While the public may be somewhat divided on this matchup, the sharps seem to prefer Green Bay, judging by our expanded consensus report. The Packers (2-1 SU and ATS) are pulling in 71 percent of the monies wagered; however, that's only good enough for an average bet size of $54. It's much bigger than New York's $19, but it's not the stuff of high-roller legend.

The analytics seem to favor the Pack by a smidge. FiveThirtyEight project an Elo-based point spread of Green Bay –8 for Sunday night. This is the NFL, though, and we need to pay very close attention to the injury reports, which Elo doesn't take fully into account. Packers CB Sam Shields (concussion) is out for Week 5, while LB Clay Matthews (ankle) and NT Letroy Guion (knee) are questionable.

Which brings us to the rumors of WR Odell Beckham Jr.'s demise. Beckham has had a rough time for the Giants (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) the last couple of games, but he's also had difficult matchups against Washington CB Josh Norman and Minnesota CB Xavier Rhodes. That won't be the case Sunday with Shields out of commission. Meanwhile, the Giants secondary is full of holes, too. The weather report looks clear, there's a total of 47.5 points on the NFL odds board – let's avoid the spread in this case and take the OVER instead. You're with me, leather.

Free NFL Pick: OVER 47.5 (–105)
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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