NFL Betting : False Favorites And Top Dogs For Week 13

Miami Dolphins players

Tuesday, November 29, 2016 6:06 PM GMT

When it comes to betting the NFL, sometimes you run into "the perfect storm" -- and if you saw the George Clooney 2000 movie of the same name, you know it does not always end well. Let's look ahead to Week 13 and our NFL picks.

After the Thanksgiving games in Week 12, it was a tough week to find bad favorites and quality underdogs that looked like they could cover. The sportsbooks took a beating and so did I at 0-3. You don't do this for 17 weeks and expect everything to go your way. I made the NFL picks, stand at 21-14-1 ATS (60%) for the season and am ready to look ahead.

Went to at A-rated Intertops, where it has great first-time bonus sign-ups, to review the NFL odds and fully intend to have big bounce back.

Top Dog -- Diving With Dolphins

Over the last several seasons, I have made a good chunk of money backing Miami in a particular situation. Eventually this will change, but it will not against Baltimore on Sunday. Since 2006, the Dolphins are 29-14-1 ATS when listed as non-division road underdogs. This season, they are already 3-1 against the spread in that spot. While the Ravens have a great defense, the offense continues to be largely unproductive. Baltimore ranks 26th in points scored (18.2), 29th in yards per play (4.9) and last in third-down efficiency (33.3 percent), hardly the stuff of a great team. Even if you include the 3 1/2 bad quarters of offense at Los Angeles two games ago, Miami coach Adam Gase has this offense scoring, and the Fins are putting up 26.8 ppg during six-game winning streak. Fins cover and might win!

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011366, "sportsbooksIds":[180,19,1096,169,93], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

Top Dog -- Lions Believe & Comfortable Indoors

Though Detroit is in first place in the NFC North and there is clamoring for Matthew Stafford to be given MVP consideration, the Lions have been lifted from +4 to +5.5 on NFL odds at New Orleans. How Drew Brees and the Saints play at home is being given strong backing by wagering public, which is understandable. Nonetheless, Detroit stays in every game, and while the New Orleans defense has been playing better Stafford has the weapons to pick it apart. When you get to December, making plays in big games is even more important, and the Lions have all year. With a total at 53.5, it does not go unnoticed that Stafford & Co. are 6-0 ATS when the total is 49.5 or higher the last three seasons.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011368, "sportsbooksIds":[180,19,1096,169,93], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

Top Dog -- Don't Overlook Giants' Winning Streak

The wagering public is not all the impressed with the New York Giants and still sees Pittsburgh as an AFC threat and moved the Steelers from -4.5 to -6 on NFL picks. While the Giants have not faced the best the NFL has to offer in winning six straight, Pittsburgh ended a four-game losing streak against the Browns and then the Colts, who were without Andrew Luck. We are all aware confidence is a huge factor in the NFL, and New York possess it and can contain the Steelers' run game with the No. 5 run defense. In addition, Eli Manning can take big shots vs. Pittsburgh's still uncertain secondary. Big Blue is 40-19 ATS on the road off two straight wins, on a 6-0 ATS run against the AFC and makes this a three-point game.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011374, "sportsbooksIds":[180,19,1096,169,93], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]