Green is coming off a season of just under 1300 yards, in what was a breakout year for his quarterback Andy Dalton. Can we expect similar numbers this season for NFL Odds purposes?
Hue Jackson Heads Down The Road
Hue Jackson, who was one of the biggest reasons the Bengals' offense ran as well as it did last season, is now the head coach of the Cleveland Browns. Former quarterbacks coach Ken Zampese is taking over the play calling for the Cincinnati Bengals this season. He has been with the Bengals for over a decade, but it is unknown whether or not he is going to throw the ball deep as much as we saw under Jackson.
The Bengals were a run and gun team last season that saw a lot of running plays and a lot of passes of 30 yards or more. Considering Zampese has served under Jackson and other play callers for the Bengals, he could limit the use of Green some.
However, the Bengals don't have many other options. Tyler Eifert is the only other primetime pass catcher for the Bengals. They lost Marvin Jones in free agency and newly drafted Tyler Boyd has a lot of upsides, but at this point in the season is an unknown. He could be a reliable and even star-level talent his rookie season, or he could be on the other end and not playing too many snaps.
For Green, he has gone over the 1300-yard mark twice in his career, but he needed 164 and 180 targets in those two years to do it. Expecting that much from him this season is probably overvaluing him. Green's targets have trended down over the last two years, and last season was even more concerning because he played in all 16 games.
The main problem is there are games where he either faces a tough corner or just inexplicably disappears, which is a problem when his NFL Odds are already really high at just over 1300 yards. To finish out the year in 2015, he finished with barely more than 100 yards in his last three games. He also had nine games of less than 70 yards last year. He would need to average over 80 yards per game to cash the over on this one, so while he'll have big games, it's the small ones I worry about.
The Bengals have a fantastic running game and I expect them to continue to feature it heavily in their season plans for 2016. The other problem for Green is that Eifert will presumably be healthy for all 16 games in 2016.
Eifert was going to be in the 60-catch range last year, and I could see him getting an even bigger share of the offense. Along with the running game, that spells bad news for Green's outlook. The NFL Pick here would be to take the under with better Odds at -110 for Green's betting odds at Bet365.
Free NFL Pick: UNDER 1300.5 (-110)