Identifying Public Betting Action - Steelers To Get Faded In NFL Futures Books

Antonio Brown

Wednesday, August 10, 2016 2:21 PM GMT

The General Public always seems to back NFL’s top favorites and this Summer has been no different with the Patriots, Packers, Panthers, Cardinals & Seahawks getting their fair share of money in the Super Bowl 51 and all the rest of available betting markets. Let’s see where the numbers have gone since their openers for the league’s heavyweights and make a free pick or two based on perceived value with these now perennial heavy chalks.

General Public Backing Popular Teams with Proven QB's in NFL Futures Book
Looking at the early action in sportsbooks in NFL Futures Book markets reveals a decent amount of action from the General Public on five of the six power teams in the league in the New England Patriots in the AFC and the Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC. So for now at least, a perceived imbalance between the two conferences with the numbers and betting odds saying from this far out that it could be a four-team race in the NFC to get to Super Bowl LI on Sunday, Feb. 6 at NRG Stadium in Houston (FOX; Odds: NFC -2, 49½, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), while it seems that 39-year-old Tom Brady and the Patriots look like they coast into the AFC Championship Game this season with Peyton Manning retired in Denver and the Pittsburgh Steelers having some problems of their own, which we'll talk about below.

The biggest thing to come out of this perceived disparity between the two conferences has been the Futures Book Point Spread and Money Line for Super Bowl 51. A week ago when we wrote about early Sharps-Public action in their marketplaces, the line for the Super Bowl had the AFC at PK -120 at Online operator Bovada, while now just seven days later, the NFC is now listed as a 2-point favorite (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)—the NFC is up to -135 on the Money Line—as oddsmakers adjust their number both from early action on the NFC as well as because of this perceived disparity between the 16 teams in the AFC and the 16 teams in the NFC.

As you can see below from the movement in these markets, the Patriots, Packers, Panthers, Cardinals and Seahawks—who have Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Carson Palmer and Russell Wilson as their respective starting QBs—have seen the bulk of the General Public's money this year as we near the start of the NFL Preseason on Thursday night. Here are the Futures Books odds for these five teams the public has been backing this Spring and Summer, fresh (Tuesday, Aug. 9) from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:

New England Patriots
Super Bowl Odds: 7/1 (Open: 8/1, Jan. 10)
AFC Odds: 3/1 (7/2)
AFC East Odds: -220 (4/9)
Regular Season Team Win Total: 10½ Over -120

Arizona Cardinals
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1 (Open: 10/1, Jan. 10)
NFC Odds: +450 (5/1)
NFC West Odds: +125 (7/5)
Regular Season Team Win Total: 10 Over -150

Carolina Panthers
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1 (Open: 12/1, Jan. 10)
NFC Odds: 5/1 (6/1)
NFC South Odds: -325 (2/7)
Regular Season Team Win Total: Over 10½ -110

Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl Odds: 8/1 (Open: 10/1, Jan. 10)
NFC Odds: +450 (5/1)
NFC North Odds: -170 (5/8)
Regular Season Team Win Total: 10½ Over -150

Seattle Seahawks
Super Bowl Odds: +450 (Open: 8/1, Jan. 10)
NFC Odds: +450 (4/1)
NFC West Odds: Seahawks -125 (5/7)
Regular Season Team Win Total: 10½ Over -130

Pittsburgh Steelers Lone Popular Public Team To Get Faded in NFL Futures Book
Whereas the General Public has backed New England, Green Bay, Carolina, Arizona and Seattle at the betting windows this Summer in the Futures Book (Outrights) markets, the Pittsburgh Steelers have been the one NFL team to see a fair share of action go against them in the Super Bowl 51 marketplace where they are currently 10/1 to win the NFL championship after opening at 8/1 on Jan. 10 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). In the AFC Conference title market, Ben Roethlisberger (52-41-1 ATS at Home) and The Black and Gold are now +450 (9/2) after opening up at +350 (7/2) while in the Regular Season Team Total Wins market, Pittsburgh is now priced at 10½, Under -140 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook). Why? Some of this odds movement can be attributed to the 4-game Suspension of starting RB Le'Veon Bell (113 rushes, 56 yards, 3 TDs) as well as an Injury to speedy WR Martavis Bryant (also Suspended 4 games for violating NFL's substance abuse policy) as well as maybe some money on the Steelers (+125 to win AFC North, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) AFC North counterparts the Cincinnati Bengals (+145 to win AFC North, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and QB Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens (+350 to win AFC North, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook).

So with the rare raising of an NFL's power team's odds in the Future Books markets in the Summer, it seems the AFC is a vacuum of sorts with the aforementioned AFC North beating up on each other and the Steelers and Head Coach Mike Tomlin (78-74-5 ATS) hoping oft-injured QB 34-year-old QB Roethlisberger can get through the Regular Season healthy, the Denver Broncos (12/1 to win AFC, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) seeing future Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning ride off into the sunset and the AFC South (25-39 SU in 2015) seemingly as below average as it always is. Brady and the Patriots (+850 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) look like they may hold some real value here in mid-August in the AFC with a hedge on the NFC participant in the Super Bowl a real possibility at this current price.

NFL Futures Book Conference Pick: New England Patriots to Win AFC +400 at Bet365

NFL Futures Book Conference Pick: New England Patriots to Win AFC East -181 at Betway