Free NFL Picks Week 8 - New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

New England Patriots players

Wednesday, October 26, 2016 6:14 PM GMT

New England Patriots are out for revenge in the reverse of their divisional clash with Buffalo Bills. Will the Patriots avoid the series sweep? We weigh in with our betting analysis and NFL picks.


New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Point Spread Value

Bill Belichick is an undeniable genius and one thing he's great at is revenge. The 16-0 loss to the Bills in week 4 didn't go down well with the hoody-clad head coach. On that forgettable day, an unsuspecting iPad took the brunt of his anger on the side-lines, as if the technological device were somehow responsible for the complete and utter blowout that transpired at Gillette Stadium.

Bills have never swept the series with New England during Belichick's 17-year tenure, and he's sure to do everything to keep that record intact. It's a heated rivalry. Rex Ryan made no bones about it: no love is lost between these teams. Everybody is going to be up for this clash. You know who is going to be really up for this one too, Tom Brady. If there's anybody that is really playing mad this season (Take note Fitzpatrick, The Beard) it's the maligned starter. He's shredded defenses since his return in week 5 and it doesn't look like he's about to stop now.

Since Tom Brady's return, the Patriots are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS. Not only have they been winning since week 5 but also covering some impressive spreads at the expense of the Browns (-10), Bengals (-7.5) and Steelers (-7.5). In fact, the Patriots are the best team versus the spread through the first seven weeks of the season with a 6-1 SU and ATS record underscored by a 9.9 winning margin and + 6.3 differential versus the spread.

Not surprisingly, bookmakers roll out another hefty spread at open doors for this game. How could they not and risk being smoked at the sports betting exchange.

Free NFL Picks: Patriots -6 (-105)

Best Line Offered: at Bet365

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Go Back To NFL Week 8 Cheat Sheet

The Survivor

The Bills are coming off a loss in week 7 to the Dolphins on the road. After a four-game winning streak, it was a surprisingly lacklustre performance by Buffalo in a divisional rivalry. Most concerning must be that they allowed a 17-9 third quarter lead fritter away with the Dolphins running riot over them. The very same Dolphins team that only two weeks prior looked like a joke on both sides of the ball. That doesn't bode well for Ryan and his Bills ahead of a date with Tom Brady and the Patriots that are simply the best team in the NFL right now, a view shared by NFL bettors, pundits and experts alike. Of course, it's quite possible the Bills will bring their “A” game for this fierce rivalry. Can't say it's unequivocally impossible for the Bills to pull off the upset. Still, everything points to a Patriots SU win right now. How can we argue with that? Oh, and the Bills are riding a four-game losing streak at home to the Patriots. Case closed.


Free NFL Picks: Patriots -260

Best Line Offered: at The Greek

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Game Total

The last account between this pair saw the Patriots go pointless in a 16-0 loss, but it featured Jacoby Brissett. This isn't to ridicule the rookie in any way, rather to point out simply the fact that the Patriots were without their best player, Tom Brady. Rex Ryan said as much in the post-game interview although it didn't stop him from gushing about the victory. The repeat could very well mirror the previous: another low-scoring gut-checking affair. Yet, call it a niggling feeling. There's a real chance this will be the complete opposite. Don't the Patriots want to prove something in Buffalo? Set the record straight, so to speak. If so, nothing but steamrolling the Bills can possibly be satisfactory enough…so we're leaning instinctively towards the OVER on our week 8 NFL picks.

Free NFL Picks: OVER 47 (-110)

Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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