Free NFL Picks - Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Miami Dolphins team during practice

Tuesday, December 20, 2016 5:18 PM GMT

With speculation rife over the future of Rex Ryan can the Bills focus on a pivotal divisional clash with the Dolphins? Here’s a mini betting preview with NFL picks.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Point Spread Value

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a big 33-13 win in week 15 but seeing as it's over the hapless Browns few NFL bettors will put a lot of stock into it. Indeed, it hasn't quelled speculation about Rex Ryan's future with the organization that began gaining momentum a few weeks back as Buffalo's season started to slip through their fingers. Next up is a tough assignment against a divisional rival that is attempting to make a serious bid for the postseason. Although the writing does appear on the wall, Ryan is a player's coach and it looks like his crop wants him to stay. That could lead to a bit of a futile rally by the troops to save his job and serve up a pointless victory. Having said that the Dolphins plus the points just seems too good to pass up given current form and their status quo in the postseason frame.

Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +4 (-110)

Best Line Offered: at JustBet

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The Survivor

In terms of betting on the straight up win for week 16 NFL picks it's a bit of a toss up with these two teams. On one hand, the Dolphins cut a mighty convincing pose with a two-game winning streak and an overall healthier 9-5-0 SU record to the Bills' 7-7-0 SU record. However, home field advantage can't be overlooked: the Bills are 4-3 SU at home with a 6.0 winning margin and +3.7 differential versus the spread. The temptation to play spoilers to Miami's postseason hopes is another aspect to consider as well as the freezing temperatures in Buffalo which the Fins aren't used to. It's enough to consider hedging your bets for week 16 NFL picks and shade the Bills to win SU and the Dolphins to cover. Then again, those that are buying what the Dolphins are selling will think otherwise. This is a must-win game for the Dolphins in some ways and we're inclined to tip it their way.

Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +165

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Game Total

Since bookmakers went to press with the total odds on this game there's been a conspicuous negative trend on the NFL odds board with the total whittling down. A function of weather forecasts and betting triggers that appear to be heading towards the UNDER at early doors. It's worth noting the Dolphins are 10-4-0 in O/U betting this season, marking one of the stronger OVER records in the league. What's more, Buffalo boast an 11-3-0 OVER record which is the second best after Atlanta. Perhaps the OVER is the smart pick and with the NFL line whittling down that becomes an even more attractive option in our books.

Free NFL Pick: Over 42 (-105)

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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