Expert Final Thoughts - Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys player celebrating

Wednesday, November 23, 2016 7:03 PM GMT

The Dallas Cowboys are having a dream season thanks to the two most talented Rookies to enter the NFL in some time. Let’s examine the trends for this NFC East showdown and provide an NFL pick.

NFL Picks Season ATS Record: 66-45-2

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys (91 SU/ATS, 285 PS-187 PA, W9) have become America's Team once again, and on Thursday afternoon, they play host to Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins (6-3-1 SU, 7-2 ATS, 254 PS-233 PA, W2) at AT&T Stadium (Matrix RealGrass AT) in Arlington in week 12 in one of the NFL's fiercest rivalries and a huge NFC East tilt, especially for Washington. Offshore sportsbooks currently (Tuesday night) have the Cowboys from -7 to 9-point favorites as Sharps pounded Dallas at open with the total at 51 almost everywhere but at 51½. The money line odds see Dallas solid -295 chalks with Josh Norman and the Redskins +220 while the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened up Dallas as 6½-point favorites in its Week 12 advanced line and had the hosts open as 4½-point favorites in its renowned 2016 Games of the Year.

Series, Side And Totals Trends

The series Trends heavily favor Washington (1-4 ATS L5 Thursday) which is 9-4 ATS the L13 meetings and 8-1 ATS the L9 here in the Lone Star State (Dallas won in Week 2, 27-23 (WAS -3) and will be coming in on a short turnaround having played the Packers on SNF. The Underdog is 28-9 the L37 in this rivalry and Dallas is 6-1 SU vs. Washington (8-2 Overs in 2016) on Thanksgiving. Jason Witten and the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS L6 Thursdays but have W9 straight ATS behind a stellar Offensive Line.

The Over is 4-0 the L4 Redskins Thursday games, 11-1 the L12 Washington dates after racking up 250+ Passing yards in its previous game and 9-1 the L10 Redskins games versus the NFC—including that aforementioned first meeting at RFK Stadium which trickled Over (DAL 27-23, 47). Both Dallas and Washington were winners in Week 11—all six combatants Thursday are above the .500 mark, the first time that's happened since the league added another Thanksgiving Day game in 2006.

Final Thoughts, Logic, Turkey Day Game Quick Pick

This matchup will be tough for Dallas (#21 Pass Defense) with Cousins (73.1 Total QBR, #6) playing great and having plenty of able targets like DeSean Jackson, Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garçon, Chris Thompson, Jordan Reed and veteran Vernon Davis. Expect the Cowboys to be tested in an aerial shootout that seems to last five hours and which will have the most nap time. Tryptophan don't care.

Predicted Final Score: Cowboys 33 Redskins 31

Free NFL Pick: Over 51 -102 at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011347, "sportsbooksIds":[238,1096,139,93,123], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]