Expert Final Thoughts - Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans cheering for their team

Thursday, November 3, 2016 2:03 PM GMT

 

With Matt Ryan back to the form which made him one of the NFL’s most productive QBs, Atlanta Falcons games have been going Over the posted Totals this season (7-1) and with Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in town for an NFC South Thursday Night Football affair, do we buy a ticket to get on the Over train? Let’s look at all of the relevant trends and make an NFL pick.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons (5-3 SU/ATS, 262 PS-231 PA) travel to Tampa and Raymond James Stadium (Grass) to face Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4 SU/ATS, 152 PS-189 PA) on Thursday Night Football in the week 9 opener and important NFC South date. Sportsbooks offshore have the Falcons as 3½- to 4-point Road Favorites with the total at 51 almost everywhere, but 51½ at Bovada. In the money line market, Atlanta is -180 with Tampa Bay +162 while the 1st Half odds have the Falcons 2½- to 3-point favorites with the 1st Half Total at 25½ and 26 almost everywhere else. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Atlanta 2-point favorites in its NFL Week 9 Advanced Line.

Series Trends, Overall Trends, Falcons Over Run, Thursday Night Football Handicap

As you can see by the scores, Falcons games have gone well over the posted totals in Weeks 1-8, with Overs 7-1 in Dirty Birds' games with an average of 61.6 ppg having been scored in Atlanta games. Why? Pass, pass, pass and pace, pace, pace. The Falcons rank #5 in the NFL in pace when leading or trailing by 6 points (26.39 seconds/play) and with guys like WR Julio Jones (#1 in NFL in Receiving, 859 yards) and RB Devonta Freeman (543 Rushing yards) and Ryan (#1 in NFL, 2,36 Passing yards) slinging the pigskin, it's no wonder Falcons games have been whizzing Over the Total.

The Thursday Night Football trends reveal the Buccaneers to be 1-4 SU/ATS on TNF (0-2 ATS at Home) while Atlanta is 8-2 ATS on Thursdays and 4-1 Away and 7-1 ATS in Revenge spots—which definitely qualifies in this matchup with Tampa Bay topping the Falcons in Atlanta, 31-24 in Week 1 as 2½-point chalks. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their L5 Road games but 0-4 ATS L4 in November and 2-10 ATS L12 after an ATS Loss while the Buccaneers are 19-7-1 ATS their L27 in November but 3-8 ATS L11 overall and 18-43-1 the L62 at Home. Although the Under is 16-3 the L19 Falcons Week 9 tilts, this one is in warm Tampa where Atlanta has scored 19, 27, 28 and 34 points L4 meetings, with much less progressive Offenses. Sanu matters.

Predicted Final Score: Falcons 33 Buccaneers 27

Free NFL Pick: Over 51 -105 at 5Dimes

NFL Picks Season Record: 57-35-2

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