Early Lean On Double-Digit Home Underdog Dolphins Over Patriots

Miami Dolphins players celebrating

Tuesday, December 27, 2016 8:19 PM GMT

SBR contributor Ross Benjamin previews Sunday’s NFL regular-season finale between New England and Miami. The Patriots can lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed with a win but lost at the Dolphins in  Week 17 last year in the same situation.

New England Patriots At Miami Dolphins

Two AFC East Division rivals square off in their regular season finales on Sunday when Miami hosts New England. Both teams have already clinched a playoff spot. New England (13-2) has won the AFC East and Miami (10-5) secured a wild-card berth in Week 16. The Patriots will lock up the AFC's top spot with either a win or an Oakland loss on Sunday.

At the time of this writing, the NFL betting odds at 5Dimes have New England as a 10.5-point favorite, and there's a posted total of 44.5. New England is 10-3 straight up and 8-5 against the spread in its last 13 games against Miami. Nevertheless, these divisional foes have split the past six meetings played in Miami.

Home/Away Splits

New England has gone a perfect 7-0 on the road this season. Additionally, the Patriots covered on 6 of those occasions. New England has also seen 6 of its 7 road games stay 'under' the total.

Miami is 6-1 at home this year and that includes winning 5 straight. The Dolphins have also seen 6 of those 7 home games go 'over' the total. As a matter of fact, Miami has gone 'over' the number during each of its last 4 at home.

NFL Betting Angle

New England defeated Miami 31-24 earlier this season in Foxboro. The Patriots are coming off a 41-3 win over the Jets last Saturday, and it improved their season record to 12-3 (.800). Miami is coming off a thrilling 34-31 overtime win at Buffalo. This sets up a highly successful NFL betting angle, and it weighs heavily into making one of my NFL Week 17 predictions.

Any home underdog of 10.0 to 14.0 points with a winning record (Miami), playing with revenge vs. an opponent with a win percentage of .733 or better and that team (New England) is coming off a win by 10 points or more resulted in those large home underdogs going 34-8 (81%) since 1995. Those home underdogs also won 16 of those 42 games straight up.

NFL Free Pick: Dolphins +10.5

Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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