Cam Newton's Fantastic Performance Has His Odds Sky High, Is It Worth The Risk?

Cam Newton

Tuesday, July 26, 2016 6:35 PM GMT

Cam Newton had a career year in 2015, the only thing that was disappointing was him not finishing it off with a Super Bowl win. His fantastic season has his betting odds for 2016 very high when it comes to passing yards, but there is definitely value in his NFL Odds for this prop. 

Career Year Leads To High Expectations
Despite losing Kelvin Benjamin before the season even started, the Carolina Panthers came out and dominated NFL defenses. They averaged 31.3 points per game to add up to an even 500 points scored to easily lead the league last year, but they could not overcome the Broncos' even better defense in the Super Bowl.

Cam Newton was a big reason this offense ran so smoothly. With his combined running and passing, he made the Panthers' offense almost impossible to game plan for. He threw for only 3887 passing yards, but he also averaged nearly eight yards per attempt and he threw for 35 touchdowns and ran for another 10 TDs on 4.8 yards per attempt.

Newton's passing yards alone were not even a career best for the star quarterback. However, with the amount of time the Panthers spent leading teams and running the ball last year, it's no surprise Newton was used to get the ball into the end zone more than he was to move the ball down the field. The Panthers easily ranked as the number one team I rushing attempts per game in 2015 at 33.2, but with the return of Benjamin, the emergence of Devin Funchess and the steady play of Greg Olsen, the Panthers will own one of the most elite receiving cores in the league if everyone stays healthy.

Season Outlook
Staying healthy might just be the key for the Panthers to get back to the NFC Championship game next season. However, when it comes to their balance on offense, they might put more of a load on Newton this season, especially if their running game takes a step backwards or gets unhealthy.

Jonathon Stewart had a career-high 242 carries in just 13 games last season, but as he usually does, he missed three games, which puts his total games missed over the last two seasons at six. He played only 15 out of a possible 32 over the two seasons in 2012 and 2013, so if the oft-injured Stewart comes into this season, it might be hard for the Panthers to run the ball so effectively like they did in 2015.

That could easily lead to Newton's passing yards going over. However, health is a factor with Newton as well. I doubt they will have him optioning and running the ball as much this season, but you best be sure that Newton is getting almost all the carries inside the opponent's two or three yard line.

That is an incredible amount of punishment for an offense as good as Carolina's, so there is risk it like me, you think the over is the NFL pick. However, Benjamin is an easy 1000 yard receiver, as is Olsen, so if you just need another 1800 from guys like Funchess, Stewart and the speedy Ted Ginn Jr, the over with NFL odds at 3775.5 -125 is the best for this prop.

Free NFL Pick: Over 3775.5 -125 at Bet365