We have come to the end of the season for betting NFL football and one of the most popular activities is making prop bets for the Super Bowl. Each year the list continues to grow and is crazier each time.
Our focus on making NFL picks on props will be to stay with the nuts and bolts of the game. While some places will have as many as 400 props to choose with the NFL odds, we will let somebody bet on what color Lady Gaga's hair might be.
Bad Dog - Team To Score Last
With New England the visiting team, I'll say they win the coin toss and take the ball. There is little reason to believe the Atlanta defense will contain Tom Brady and the New England offense. If is a foregone conclusion the Patriots will game plan something the Falcons did not plan for (like they did against Pittsburgh with four receiver sets) and be able to take advantage of Atlanta's eagerness and anxiety in the early going.
Free NFL Pick: Patriots -115
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker
False Number - Total Sacks, Over/Under Four for Either Team
These teams were middle of the pack during the regular season in sacks. Though I expect both to create pressure, actually bringing down either quarterback is another matter. Both Tom Brady and Matt Ryan are in charge of offenses that are read and react, which means getting rid of the football in a hurry. This is very unlikely to change. The other element in this particular game with these teams is they want to run the ball to have a balanced offense. With each committed to rushing and both signal callers deceptive ball-handlers and extremely skilled in play-action, that will curtail the rush.
Free NFL Pick: Under 4
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
False Number - Julian Edelman Receiving Yards UNDER 90.5
Top Dog - Chris Hogan Receiving Yards OVER 59.5
Top Dog - Martellus Bennett - Receiving Yards OVER 36.5
For this season, Julian Edelman has averaged 75.6 yards per game catching passes. That makes his adjusted total for the Super Bowl a little hard to swallow, unless you have been paying attention and realize in Edelman's past four games he's averaged 123.7 YPG receiving passes. Though the Over would certainly seem correct, my guess is this will be the focal point of Atlanta wanting to take away something from Brady. With how bad the Falcons are in covering tight ends this season (28th in NFL) and wanting to attack Brady with pressure, look for the Patriots game plan to attack the real weaknesses of Atlanta defense at the tight end spot with Martellus Bennett and from where Rob Gronkowski would be playing, now essentially using receiver Chris Hogan in the slot position.
Free NFL Pick: Edelman Receiving Yards UNDER 90.5
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
False Number - LeGarrette Blount Rushing Yards OVER 57.5
When you say the name, LeGarrette, you will not think 'shifty', yet he still had 1,161 yards rushing during the regular season. To accomplish this, Blount needs a lane and going up a defense in Atlanta which has given up 4.6 yards per carry on the season, it would seem the big running back should have opportunities to put together rather impressive rushing totals. Have to admit I would be shocked if Blount does not have at least 70 yards on the ground and could well have more, especially if the Patriots have a 10 or more point lead in the fourth quarter.