Our NFL handicapping professional shares some of his successful betting systems for preseason action. Be sure to go inside to read this intriguing article, and it’s highlighted by 24-10 and 28-11 ATS preseason wagering angles.
There's certainly no denying that in the grand scheme of things, NFL preseason results have no bearing on what we can expect to see during regular season action. Nevertheless, sportsbooks do put out a point-spread and total on these meaningless games, and obviously, there's an opportunity to make money.
Before I get into situations that have been profitable for me over the years, I always advise clients and readers alike, proceed with utmost caution when making betting picks in regards to preseason games. Regarding a money management standpoint, I always recommend wagering no more than 1.25% of your total bankroll per preseason. There's just way too many intangibles and variables to account for in preseason contests. That's certainly in stark contrast to a 5% per wager I suggest making throughout regular season, playoff, and Super Bowl action.
Dress Rehearsal Games
It's been standard procedure for NFL head coaches to use their next to last preseason game for a final dress rehearsal. There are exceptions to the rule pertaining to that specific topic. Jeff Fisher is a prime example of exactly that, and has been a proponent of using his team's last preseason game for a final tune up. Fisher has exhibited that ideology throughout his 15-years as head coach in Tennessee, and in his current tenure as head coach of the St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams.
Cash Cows in Final Tune Up Games
Since the 1983 preseason, away favorites have been a lucrative bet when playing in Game 3 (dress rehearsal) of the preseason. During that time period, those favorites have gone 53-34 ATS (60.9%). Tightening that up even further enables us to create an even more profitable situation. If NFL betting odds shows those away teams as favorites of 5.0 or less, and they're coming off a straight up loss in their previous game, it resulted in those road teams going 24-10 ATS (70.6%).
The logic is crystal clear in my eyes. The odds-makers know that teams simulate this specific preseason game somewhat close to regular season action in terms of projected starters playing extended time. I've stated on numerous occasions, respecting the ability of odds-makers to set a line with utmost accuracy is a vital prerequisite for sports betting success. Keeping that in mind, they clearly feel that the away team in this situation isn't only superior, but also possesses the best intangible and miscellaneous edges pertaining to this specific matchup. For lack of a better phrase, “the proof is in the pudding”.
Hall of Fame Game Participants
Each preseason we have two teams that take part in the annual Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio, and use their 4th game in their 5-game preseason schedule for a final test run. These teams have been historically a play against in these precise scenarios. Hall of Fame Game participating teams playing in their 4th preseason contest went a miserable 43-69 ATS (38.4%) since 1985. If those teams were playing on the road, they fell to 11-28 ATS (28.2%) since 1993.
The conclusion I've drawn from these results is unpretentious. The teams which played in the Hall of Fame Game reported to training camp a week or more before other NFL squads. As a result, rigors of training camp, and traveling to play this late in the preseason campaign has definitely taken a toll on them. Fading Hall of Fame Game participants in this identical situation has been a lucrative venture in regards to making NFL picks.