With only two weeks left in the regular season, we could have a very good idea of what the playoff matchups will look like after Week 16, and the NFL Future Odds are moving and shaking every week. After going over the AFC and NFC odds yesterday, let’s take a look at the updated prices to win the Super Bowl. All of the odds seen here are from Sportsbook.ag.
With one more win, the Seahawks will clinch the division and the top seed in the NFC, and without a doubt should be the favorite to win the Super Bowl. I don’t think they have been higher than +600 even before the season started, so if you didn’t add them to your NFL picks early, I wouldn’t advise it now. They do have the easiest road if they clinch home field, which is why they are now favored heavily over the Broncos.
Denver’s Thursday loss to the Chargers has left the AFC West open again, as the Chiefs are now also 11-3 SU heading into Week 16. Although the Broncos own the tiebreaker over the Chiefs, one more loss could make them have to travel in the first round of the playoffs. While I think they’ll win out to keep their #1 seed alive, they are far from out of the woods.
After Denver there is a sharp drop-off to the Niners, but they are clearly worthy of being right behind the Broncos and Seahawks. Right now there may still be some value with San Francisco, but there is only a slim chance of them overtaking Seattle for the NFC West. This is why NFL Odds still have them priced at nearly 8/1.
The Patriots are in much worse shape than the 49ers over in the NFC, because not only do they have to go through a superior team, but the Pats lost their best offensive player outside of Tom Brady. Without Rob Gronkowski, New England is going to be hard-pressed to beat Denver without some help over the next two weeks.
The Bengals are priced pretty appropriately at 15/1. It’s unfortunate they have sustained so many defensive injuries this season or they would look a whole lot better where they are at. Their loss this past week to the Steelers put them in a position to have to fight their way for the AFC North, and getting out of the first round is about all you can expect from this team, not a Super Bowl.
Carolina is the Cincinnati of the NFC, expect their defense is better, but so is their conference. The Panthers have a big game in Week 16, which is going to decide whether the +1600 you’re looking at is worth betting, or worth laughing at. If Carolina beats the Saints this week, then a bet on them right now at +1600 to win the Super Bowl would be pretty good value. They would put themselves in a position to get a bye, and 16/1 would then get cut in half. In short, if you think the Panthers are going to beat the Saints this week, I would also lay a nice chunk on them to win the NFC and the Super Bowl as well, because if they do win in Week 16, divide their current price by two.
The Saints are almost cooked. They have to go on the road into Carolina this week, and if they lose, they are in jeopardy of becoming a wildcard team. New Orleans is 1-6 ATS on the road this season, and a road playoff game would be almost a death sentence from their performances this season. Winning in Carolina would silence their critics, so much like if you like the Panthers, if you like the Saints this week, a New Orleans future odds bet might add value.
Speaking of value, the Chiefs probably have more of it than any other team. Although they will be playing on the road, they have the perfect formula to win on the road, and they also could still sneak into a bye if the Broncos slip up. 20/1 is pretty generous from the sportsbooks, and if you ask me, I might say go for it.
Final ThoughtsOf all the teams here, I would recommend Denver at NFL odds of +260, along with hedges of Carolina and Kansas City at +1600 and +200 respectfully.