Series Trends Favor Notre Dame In Today's ACC Showdown vs. Louisville

Notre Dame Fighting Irish player in action

Saturday, March 4, 2017 2:11 PM GMT

March Madness is just two weeks away and while schools have already started Conference Tournament play, others are wrapping up regular season conference play, including 8th-ranked Louisville who hosts Bonzie Colson and #19 Notre Dame on Saturday afternoon. Let’s take a quick look and offer a college hoops pick.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Louisville Cardinals

No. 8-ranked Louisville (23-7 SU, 17-10-1 ATS) plays host to No. 19 Notre Dame (23-7 SU, 18-12-1 ATS) at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville on Saturday in this ACC showdown in which sportsbooks opened the host Cardinals 8-point favorites (BetOnline) between teams with legitimate shots to make the Sweet Sixteen when March Madness tips off March 14.

Louisville Cardinals

Louisville has played 7 Overs in its L8 games after an 88-81 loss at Wake Forest on Wednesday (154) as, after leading by 14, the Cardinals (2-5 ATS L7) lost outright as 4-point favorites. Louisville (#8 Pomeroy) got double-digit scoring from Deng Adel (22 points), Quentin Snider (15), Jaylen Johnson (13) and Mangkok Mathiang (12) but a 5-18 mark on 3-point FGs (27.8%) hurt the visitors with Donovan Mitchell going 1-for-8 from long range.

Despite the aforementioned Over run, Louisville (77.8 AF-65.4 AA) is just 13-14-1 O/U and the Under is actually 19-5-2 L26. vs. Teams with Winning Road Record, 33-16-3 L52 Home games and 35-17-1 L53 Following SU Loss. The Cardinals are 14-6-1 ATS L21 Home games, 7-2 ATS L9 after an SU loss and 5-2-1 ATS L7 Saturdays.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

In its last game, Notre Dame defeated Boston College, 82-66, barely covering by ½ as 15½-point chalks in its fifth ATS cover in seven games in a third consecutive Fighting Irish (#26 Pomeroy) Under (154½) as VJ Beachem (22 points), Bonzie Colson (18), Matt Farrell (14) and Steve Vasturia (10) all finished in double digits. The last time these two met, Notre Dame (79.0 AF-69.2 AA) won and covered as 2-point favorites against Louisville, 77-70 at home at Purcell Pavilion in South Bend on Jan. 4 (139½).

The Fighting Irish are 5-1-1 ATS L7 Saturdays, 7-3 ATS L10 after an SU Win while the Over is 11-3 L14 Notre Dame games against Teams with SU Winning Records.

Series Trends Favor Notre Dame

The series trends here reveal the Over is 11-3 L14 meetings and 7-1 L8 in Louisville with Notre Dame covering three straight ATS and the Home team winning and covering 5 of the L6. Despite Louisville's dominance of late at the KFC Yum! Center (12-4 SU), and the overall quality of these two teams who could both very well make the Sweet Sixteen during March Madness, the Home team is too spurty offensively and Notre Dame has played very well on the Road in the ACC this season (5-2-1 ATS on Road) and could possibly pull off the upset here if everything goes right.

Final Score Predictions: Louisville 79 Notre Dame 77

Free NCAAB Pick: Notre Dame +8 -110

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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