Skip to main content

San Diego State vs. Alabama Predictions, Odds & Picks: Can Aztecs Dictate Pace in March Madness Battle?

Philip Wood

Last Updated: March 24, 2023 3:36 PM EDT • 2 min 38 sec read.

Head coach Brian Dutcher of the San Diego State Aztecs talks to his players during the Mountain West basketball tournament at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by David Becker/Getty Images via AFP.
Head coach Brian Dutcher of the San Diego State Aztecs talks to his players during the Mountain West basketball tournament at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by David Becker/Getty Images via AFP.

A trip to the Elite Eight is at stake when the the No. 1 seed Alabama Crimson Tide meet up with the fifth-seeded San Diego State Aztecs in the Sweet 16 on Friday. Here are our best San Diego State vs. Alabama college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

The Aztecs advanced to the Sweet 16 by shutting down two high-powered mid-major offenses. Though they got a slight scare from the College of Charleston Cougars, they held the Furman Paladins to just 32% from the floor and 23.1% from beyond the arc in their second-round win

San Diego State will need a similar defensive performance against the Crimson Tide on Friday night. The Tide rolled through their first two opponents, winning both games by over 20 points.

Both teams are about to face the best team they have played all tournament. So who has the advantage?

Here is our best San Diego State vs. Alabama prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

San Diego State vs. Alabama odds

San Diego State vs. Alabama prediction

Under 138.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The Crimson Tide have a phenomenal offense. They are averaging 82.3 points per game this season, which ranks third among all Division I teams. However, we’ve seen them struggle against the better defensive teams they’ve faced this season, and the Aztecs are one of the best they will have encountered this year. 

While it may not seem like much, the Aztecs holding their first two opponents to under 60 points was an incredible feat. They went up against the 14th and 17th highest-scoring offenses in the country and made them look pedestrian.

The Crimson Tide will likely have more success against the Aztecs, but previous results suggest this will be a low-scoring slugfest. The Tennessee Volunteers held the Tide to just 59 points and the Texas A&M Aggies held them to 61. They did manage 72 against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, but the Bulldogs who showed up that day were not the same team we had seen all season.

While the Crimson Tide are still likely to win this game, they’re going to have to win uncomfortably. The Aztecs are going to slow the pace purposefully, and that is going to result in very few points for them as well. Because the Crimson Tide have the capability of blowing this game wide open, this is only a three-star play, but it definitely could be four stars if this number gets to 139.

Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.

San Diego State vs. Alabama best odds

FanDuel (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Under 137.5Under 138.5Under 137.5Under 137.5Under 138
-110-105-110-110-110

The total has grown either half a point or a full point, depending on the sportsbook. That aids in our Under bet, as we were happy to bet on Under 137.5. We'll take the extra half point of insurance at FanDuel and the limited juice.

San Diego State vs. Alabama odds analysis

The Crimson Tide opened as 6-point favorites, and the line touched as high as 8 before settling at 7.5. Around 53% of bettors are backing Alabama. This type of support does not signal that there will be much movement before tipoff.

The total opened at 137.5, and it has gone up a point at some of the major sportsbooks. There is slightly more support for the Under, with 55% of bettors backing it. Much like with the spread, there likely won’t be much movement before tipoff.

San Diego State vs. Alabama game info

  • Date: Friday, March 24, 6:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: TBS
  • Location: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY

San Diego State vs. Alabama pick made 03/23/2023 at 12:04 p.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.