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College basketball best bets.
College basketball best bets.

Two more teams will cut down nets today, with the last pair of Final Four berths on the line. Read on for our March Madness best bets for Saturday's Elite 8 action based on the top NCAAB odds.

No. 1 seeds Alabama and Houston were supposed to be in action today, but each was upset in the Sweet 16. That ensured we would have an Elite Eight devoid of any No. 1 seeds for the first time in NCAA Tournament history.

The Texas Longhorns are the lone top-two seed to reach the Elite Eight, and they're looking for the team's first Final Four berth since 2003. Meanwhile, the other three teams in action (Miami, Creighton, and San Diego State) are seeking to become Final Four participants for the first time in school history.

Here are our March Madness best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and Caesars Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Sunday’s March Madness schedule and odds

(odds courtesy of DraftKings)

  • Creighton (-2) vs. San Diego State 
  • Miami vs. Texas (-4) 

March Madness conference tournament best bets for Sunday

  • Player prop: Jordan Miller Over 0.5 3-pointers vs. Texas (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 5.5 rebounds (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Spread: Miami +4 vs. Texas (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Upset: San Diego State ML vs. Creighton (+118 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

March Madness top picks

Player prop: Jordan Miller Over 0.5 3-pointers vs. Texas (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami forward Jordan Miller has made at least one 3-pointer in five of his previous seven games. We're getting decent value on this number given how regularly Miller has been making threes. But he needs to be efficient, as Miller has attempted two or fewer shots from beyond the arc in nine of his last 11 games.

Miami is coming off a scintillating offensive performance against one of the country's best defensive teams, scoring 1.27 points per possession against a Houston squad that averaged the second-fewest points per game allowed among all Division I teams (57.5). The Hurricanes' offense has been largely successful in 2022-23 because their floor spacing has been elite. We envision head coach Jim Larranaga utilizing Miller even more on the perimeter in this game to take advantage of his quickness edge over Texas forward Timmy Allen, the player most likely to draw that defensive assignment.

This is a four-star play because Texas ranks sixth in Evan Miyakawa's DBPR (Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating). However, Allen ranks fifth individually among all of Texas' regulars, and Larranaga is too smart not to take advantage of that matchup. 

DraftKings is offering by far the best value, as Caesars is at -133 and FanDuel is at -166 for the same bet.

Check out our Elite 8 prop picks.

Player prop: Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 5.5 rebounds vs. San Diego State (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

Kalkbrenner is in for a battle today against San Diego State's Nathan Mensah, whose inside presence (eight rebounds, five blocks) was key during the Aztecs' upset of Alabama. However, Kalkbrenner has gone against his share of physical big men and wasn't named Big East Defensive Player of the Year for the second consecutive season for nothing. 

The center has secured six-plus rebounds twice in the previous nine games. However, San Diego State doesn't boast a floor-stretching forward or center that Kalkbrenner needs to deal with. That means he'll mostly be positioned under the basket where he's most comfortable, and where he'll be able to secure many rebounds. 

This is a four-star play because Kalkbrenner went over this total in seven of 11 games against NCAA Tournament competition leading up to March Madness, and in two of three games during the tournament). That suggests he elevates his game on the biggest stage.

With Caesars and FanDuel offering +108 odds for this same 5.5 projected total, DraftKings again provides the best value.

Check out our Creighton-San Diego State picks and Creighton-San Diego State prop picks.

Spread: Miami +4 vs. Texas (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami has been a bettor's dream during the postseason while covering in six of its last seven NCAA Tournament games. Additionally, the Hurricanes relish the underdog role, going 33-12 against the spread as underdogs over the previous three seasons.

Conversely, Texas is 3-10-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2010. Between that and forward Dylan Disu likely out for this contest after being spotted in a walking boot on Friday, we're making the Hurricanes a solid four-star play. 

If Disu can't play, Miami forward Norchad Omier should feast on the glass. Omier recorded 17 rebounds (eight offensively) against Indiana's talented frontcourt, and the Hurricanes outrebounded the Hoosiers by 17 as a team.

In addition, there hasn't been a more impressive offensive performance in the tournament than what Miami did against Houston. The Hurricanes scored 1.27 points per possession against a Cougars defense that ranks in the top five nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage defense, 3-point percentage allowed, and 2-point percentage allowed, according to KenPom.

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Miami is a battle-tested team (27th in Division I experience) and can lean on its experience from last year's Elite Eight run. Also, while Rodney Terry is more than worthy of being named the long-term head coach of Texas, a significant coaching edge goes to the Hurricanes through Larranaga and his 696 wins across 37 years of experience. 

Texas is 24-0 when holding opponents to 44% or under, but only eight teams have been able to do that to Miami. Therefore, backing the Hurricanes is the play as long as we're getting at least four points.

Check out our Miami-Texas picks.

Upset: San Diego State ML vs. Creighton (+118 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

This is the second straight year these two teams have met in the NCAA Tournament, as No. 9 seed Creighton beat No. 8 seed San Diego State in an overtime thriller during the opening round in 2022. 

The Aztecs pressured the Bluejays into 20 turnovers while holding them to 2-of-14 shooting from beyond the arc during last year's matchup. Creighton point guard Ryan Nembhard didn't play in that game, but we also expect a better performance from San Diego State forward Nathan Mensah, who was scoreless and fouled out after playing 13 minutes.

And don't be too enamored with Creighton's first half on Friday when the Bluejays and Princeton combined for 90 first-half points, the most in the first half during this year's tournament. The Aztecs are the toughest defense the Bluejays have faced all season after San Diego State ranked fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, and that will show in this matchup.

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San Diego State is more experienced than Creighton (21st compared to 158th in Division I experience), and the team boasts a much deeper bench (31st in bench minutes, while the BlueJays rank 351st). We expect Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher to use that to his advantage with just one day off between games, and San Diego State has covered both of its contests following a one-day layoff.

As a result, let's pass on the +1.5 points against the spread and opt for more value with the Aztecs as moneyline underdogs. Caesars is providing the best price, with the next lowest number +115.

Check out our March Madness odds.

College basketball best bets made 3/25/2023 at 8:51 p.m. ET.

Elite 8 expert picks

Elite expert picks made by Mike SpectorShane Jackson, Philip Wood, and Brenden Schaeffer.

WriterPickSportsbookConfidence
Mike SpectorGonzaga team total Under 76.5 (-114)FanDuel Sportsbook⭐⭐⭐⭐
Shane JacksonMatt Bradley Over 12.5 points (-110)DraftKings Sportsbook⭐⭐⭐⭐
Philip WoodFlorida Atlantic-Kansas State Over 143.5 (-110)FanDuel⭐⭐⭐⭐
Brenden SchaefferCreighton-San Diego State Under 133.5DraftKings⭐⭐⭐⭐

Gonzaga team total Under 76.5 (-114 via FanDuel Sportsbook) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Gonzaga entered its Sweet 16 matchup against UCLA averaging an NCAA-best 1.07 points per possession. And while it exceeded that average against the usually pesky Bruins (the Bulldogs scored 1.08 points per possession in the Sweet 16), don't forget that UCLA was without its best perimeter defender Jaylen Clark and interior defender Adem Bona.

Now the Bulldogs face a UConn team that ranks 13th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and boasts size in the tandem of Sanogo and Clingan, who will defend Timme. Clingan ranks fifth among all Division I players in DBPR, and he'll likely get more minutes to protect Sanogo from foul trouble. 

Just one of UConn's last 11 opponents has topped 70 points, with five held under 60. Gonzaga was averaging 76.3 points per game over 11 matchups against NCAA Tournament teams leading up to March Madness, which is 10.7 points below its season average. -Spector

Timme Hand

Bradley Over 12.5 points vs. Creighton (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Anyone who has been reading my updates on the March Madness futures market knows how invested I am in the San Diego State Aztecs. Not only am I one win away from cashing a +2800 Final Four ticket, but my +10000 national championship future from last May doesn’t look so silly anymore.

The smart thing to do in this position would be to hedge with a bet on Creighton to win outright. The Bluejays are a short favorite after all, and they certainly didn’t need to work as hard during Friday’s win over Princeton.

But I want all the money, and I'm determined to make the books pay for doubting my Aztecs.

Perhaps the most shocking part of San Diego State’s upset win over Alabama was that Matt Bradley only finished with six points after playing just 19 minutes due to foul trouble. Bradley, who averages 12.8 points per game, has been the team’s leading scorer for two years now and is the only player to average in double figures in either season.

His scoring prop is now a point lower than it was against Alabama, despite nearly every metric ranking Creighton as the worse team defensively. The Bluejays utilize a lot of coverage with big man Ryan Kalkbrenner anchoring the rim, which should open the door for plenty of mid-range looks. And that's where Bradley and Co. thrive.

After failing to clear this number in back-to-back games, I’m betting on a bounce-back performance from Bradley. The Aztecs will need it if they hope to make program history and earn a trip to the Final Four in Houston. - Jackson

Check out our March Madness odds and picks, and March Madness MVP predictions and picks.

Florida Atlantic-Kansas State Over 143.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There's no number high enough that I'd shy away from this bet. Luckily, the number is surprisingly low. Both teams are averaging over 76 points per game, and each squad wants to get out in transition rather than run its half-court offense.

Perhaps this number is so low because the Owls' game against the Tennessee Volunteers ended with just 117 points. But the Volunteers boasted one of the best defenses in the country this season, so the Owls breaking 60 was an accomplishment.

Nowell is playing electric basketball right now, and he'll keep up his impressive passing and scoring. The Owls boast a lot of players who can hit threes, and the Wildcats allow their opponents to shoot just 30.5% from distance. Florida Atlantic will put up so many that some will fall. - Wood

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Creighton-San Diego State Under 133.5 (-133 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you look at the total points across their recent games, you might be fooled into thinking Creighton and San Diego State play two drastically contrasting styles. While Creighton's preferred pace is quicker than the Aztecs' approach, neither team ranks among the top 130 in Division I in adjusted tempo.

Although five of Creighton's last seven contests have cleared 150 points, the Bluejays still rank 14th in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. San Diego State's defense is even better at No. 4 in the nation. The Aztecs have cleared a 133.5-point total just once over their last eight games, barely doing so Friday when they faced an Alabama team ranked fourth in adjusted tempo.

VSiN's betting splits show that while 83% of bets through DraftKings have gone Over, only 67% of the handle is on that side. That suggests there's some sharp action on the Under. - Schaeffer

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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