We hit two out of three NBA player props from Game 2 of the Finals, and now it’s time to hit on all three of them for Game 3, and I have chosen my best three to release via my NBA Picks.
Richard Jefferson O/U 12 points and rebounds
There is a lot of value on the NBA Odds boards with the injury to Kevin Love. News broke this morning that Richard Jefferson was wearing a starters jersey at shoot around in Cleveland this morning, and if he is starting for Love he may be in line for several more three-point and rebounding attempts depending how small the Cavs play. Jefferson could see a lot of time playing the three or four in this game, and either has its advantages for this prop.
Jefferson had 12 points and five rebounds in just 26 minutes in Game 2 after Love went down, and he should be playing well into the 30s tonight if he is starting. His Usage Rate spike alone is enough to cash the over on this one. His per-36 numbers are the same as what he put up in 10 fewer minutes just three nights ago, so on rest, this veteran is bound to cash us a winning ticket tonight.
NBA Pick: OVER 12 (-115)
Will Tristan Thompson Record a Double-Double?
With Kevin Love officially ruled out of tonight's game, the Cavs, and myself for a certain extent, are about to rely on Tristan Thompson tonight. The Cavs big man is probably going to play at least 40 minutes tonight if not the entire game, and considering the way he has been rebounding in this series, there is little to no way he doesn't have a double-double in this game.
I got burned by Thompson being in foul trouble in Game 2, however, he is now the Cavs best big man in this game, and he is going to play as many minutes as he can. When he was forced to do the same thing in last year's Finals without Love, Thompson had one game where he was in foul trouble. He won't be as aggressive in this one on defense, but he will grab boards and score. He had three games with double-digit shot attempts in last year's postseason, and he would have had two straight this year if it weren't for the blowout.
In the playoffs this season, Thompson has per-36 numbers of seven points and 11 rebounds. As long as he gets the shot attempts, he will easily have a double-double tonight.
NBA Pick: Yes (+120)
Draymond Green O/U 31.5 points, rebounds and assists
What's scary about Draymond Green's stat line from Game 2 is that it could have been bigger if it weren't for the blowout. Green's 28 points led all scorers in that game, and he is showing after two games why I begged people to take him to win Finals MVP at +500 or better.
The problem with his line for Game 3 is that after I laid off him in Game 2 after winning his prop in Game 1, it's the exact same number as Game 2 at 31 ½. I can only attribute it to the fact that Golden State is on the road, and Green and most of the Warriors don't play as lights out as they do at Oracle Arena.
However, while it hasn't shown in the playoffs because of some bad games in Oklahoma City in the Conference Finals, Green actually shoots better on the road this season. He shot 51.3 percent from the floor on the road in the regular season, opposed to 47 percent at home. Green's Usage has steadily risen this postseason, and he has double-digit shot attempts in five straight games, and he took 20 shots in Game 2. If the Cavs are going to keep leaving him open, it's going to be another big night for the Dubs. All odds provided by Bovada.
NBA Pick: OVER 31.5 (-115)