NBA Playoffs Picks: Heat In Valuable Underdog Spot Tonight vs. Hornets

Monday, April 25, 2016 1:00 PM GMT

The Heat and Hornets remain in N. Carolina for the 4th game of their best of 7 in Round 1 of the 2016 NBA Playoffs. Join us as we break down the game to offer you a profitable NBA Pick on the game.

A quick look at the seasons records of these two shows that Miami has a slim one-game edge at 50-35 SU. That comes as a result of the 2-1 series lead in which the home team has won all 3 games. That is represented by the home/road dichotomy, as Charlotte is 31-11 SU at home for the season, while Miami is just 20-22 SU on the road. That home/road dichotomy has certainly played out in the series to date. But, the NBA Playoffs is a time of adjustments. Much like Charlotte made after 2 losses in Miami. As a result, we should favor the more experienced Miami Heat team, as they look to take control of this 1st Round series.


As mentioned above, Miami dominated the first 2 games of the series. The Heat shot a combined 58% from the field in those 2 contests resulting in victories of 123--91 and 115-103. At the completion of those two wins, Miami stood 26-4 in the series. But, things all changed in Game 3, when Charlotte made the necessary adjustments.

At the urging of upper-management, including super stars Michael Jordan and Patrick Ewing, HC Clifford was urged to use rookie Kaminsky in the low post. After being a virtual non-factor in the first 2 games of the series, Kaminsky played 34 minutes, netted 15 points and grabbed 6 rebounds. Along with 18 points from reserve guard Lin and an 18 point, 7 assist night from Walker, the Hornets used an 18-0 run in the 3rd quarter for a 96-80 home victory.

Key statistical edges in that game showed Charlotte converting 21 of 22 from the stripe, while Miami could knock down just 19 of 30 foul shots. A huge advantage came with the Hornets' care of the basketball, which saw them commit only 4 TOs to 15 TOs for Miami. In addition, the Miami shooting dipped from 58% the first 2 games to 34% in Game 3, which makes the total odds uncertain.

Now, it is time for Miami to make the adjustments. History says there is a good chance that will happen. In NBA Playoff series, road dogs who have lost Game 3 after winning the first 2 games have an over 65% chance to respond with pointspread victory. Combined with the fact that flip-flop road dogs are 40-26 ATS L2+Y, that adjustment seems most likely. I invite you to put the NBA Odds in your favor and join me in my NBA pick on the Miami Heat tonight.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011091, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1096,169,999996,180,139], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free NBA Pick: Heat +110
Best Line Offered: at Intertops