NBA Picks: Two Ways To Bet On Blazers vs. Clippers In Game 5

Wednesday, April 27, 2016 6:50 PM GMT

Let’s break it all down and try to come up with a logical NBA pick in a really tough handicapping spot with the Site carrying so much weight on one side of the ledger.

Odds Overview
Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Clippers [Thursday 03:05] (NBA, Directv 216 (US), 10:05 p.m. EDT/7:05 p.m. PDT): This Western Conference Quarterfinal series heads back down the Pacific Coast for Game 5 on Wednesday night to the Staples Center in Los Angeles where the hosts and No.3-seeded Clippers (42-41-3 ATS) will come in very beat up against the No.6-seeded Portland Trail Blazers (46-40-0 ATS) with Chris Paul (Broken Right Hand) now Out for the season after hurting himself in Game 4 while Blake Griffin was “50-50” to go here according to Clippers Head Coach Doc Rivers.

The Home team has won and covered all 4 games in this series with all four games going 'Under' the Total. Offshore NBA odds have made the host Clippers slight 2-point favorites (-108, Heritage) in this critical Game 5 with the Total (Points) at 198½ (Heritage).

The Money Line (Winner) odds see the host Clippers priced at -130 (Intertops) with the visiting Trail Blazers lined at +110 on the takeback as the small Road underdogs and the hosts are definitely worth consideration at that price.

Portland Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers (16-27 SU Road, 23-18 ATS Road) and Head Coach Terry Stotts made this a series on Monday night with their 98-84 win, thanks in great part to some Hurts to the visitors from Lalaland along with a 32-20 4th Quarter in the (still sorta) Rose Garden to earn the victory and even this series at 2-2 with the Win at the Moda Center in Portland.

And the Clippers suffered not only a Loss with a capital ‘L' in the series, but two tough Physical realities on Monday night when starting PG and playmaker Chris Paul broke his right shooting hand and Blake Griffin hobbled off with a bad Quadricep and is listed as Questionable here on the Injury report and as that aforementioned “50-50” by his own Head Coach for this Game 5.

In the win, Portland (200/1 to win NBA Championship, BetVictor) by F Al-Farouq Aminu (30 points), CJ McCollum (19 points), PG Damian Lillard (12 points), F Maurice Harkless (12 points, 7 rebounds) with Alan Crabbe (12 points) in double-digits off the Blazers' Bench as the hosts won and covered ATS despite shooting just 40.9 % from the Field (36-88). Starting C Mason Plumlee had 15 rebounds in the victory for Portland while Ed Davis had 12 boards off the Bench in his 18:17 of Playing Time as Portland outrebounded Los Angeles, 58-42—in the end, the difference in this game.

Trail Blazers (75/1 to win Western Conference, BetVictor) PF Meyers Leonard (Shoulder) is Out for the Season and the only Injury concern for the visitors which will should have a big Roster edge now with these serious Injuries to Paul and Griffin, although like in so many NBA Playoff series, the Site (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) has been the story so far here.

Los Angeles Clippers
With the Paul and Griffin Injuries, the Los Angeles Clippers (31-12 SU Home, 22-20 ATS Home) and Head Coach Doc Rivers find themselves in a very precarious position here and that precious Home-court Advantage they worked so hard to earn during the Regular Season will really be put to the test here on Wednesday night with guys like Jamal Crawford, HC Rivers' son Austin Rivers, Paul Pierce, Cole Aldrich and Jeff Green all having to try to step up and fill some of the perceived Scoring Void which will be created with Paul definitely out and Griffin hobbled.

And if he plays, the athletic Griffin will be way less than 70% and could end up hobbling off the Hardwood once again, making Game 6 and a potential Game 7 that much harder should the Clippers be without the Oklahoma product's services.

Time will tell. In the Game 4 Loss up in Portland on Monday night, Los Angeles (75/1 to win NBA Championship, BetVictor) was led in scoring by Griffin (17 points) and Reserve Green (17 points) with Paul (16 points) and Reserve G Jamal Crawford (12 points) the only other Clippers in double-figures.

Starters C DeAndre Jordan (7 points, 15 rebounds) and SG JJ Redick (8 points, 3-13 Field, 2-8 on 3's) had bad nights for Los Angeles (4-1 ATS L5 after ATS Loss) and will also have to really pick it up here in Game 5 so as not to embarrass the host Clippers (40/1 to win Western Conference, at BetVictor), whose whole season may have suddenly gone down the proverbial Drain on Monday night with the Hand injury to the electric Paul. The Clippers (5-1 ATS L6 on 1 Day Rest) were +553 (points) when Paul was on the Court this season and -200 when he wasn't.

Trends, Recent Relevant Series Information and a TotalsTrend Pick and a Because It's at Home NBA pick
In the L10 meetings in this series, both teams are 5-5 ATS (LAC 6-4 SU), but the big story here Trend-wise is the 'Under', with 4 straight 'Unders' in this series – Game 1: LAC-115-95 (210½), Game 2: LAC 102-81 (210), Game 3: POR 96-88 (208½), Game 4: POR 98-84 (203½) – and Portland playing 6 consecutive 'Unders' overall.

Also, the 'Under' is 20-6 in the L26 Clippers Home games (76.9%), but with the number adjusted drastically lower both because of these 'Unders' and the Clippers Injury concerns now, 'Under' players will be put to the test and we'll see if “The Trend (is truly) your Friend.”

The Home team has W7 of 8 overall in this series and even with Paul out and possibly Griffin also, Portland just hasn't proven it can win basketball games when it wants to away from the Moda Center and this one should be close with guys like Crawford, Aldrich, Green and Redick all stepping up for the Clippers when their team needs them the most.

But if the Trail Blazers can keep Jordan down and take the Los Angeles Crowd out of the game and get up 15 points somehow early on and if Aminu is on and Backcourt mates Lillard and McCollum both have good games at the same time, this could be the Turning Point in this series for Portland.

But History says the Site ends up mattering the most in spots like this and any close calls will likely go the hosts way. Stotts has done a wonderful job with Portland this year and the Blazers might actually be the lean here if LaMarcus Aldridge (Spurs) and Wesley Matthews (Mavericks) didn't both leave in the Offseason.

And the Trends support backing Los Angeles here as the Trail Blazers are just 2-5 ATS in their L7 overall and against the Western Conference, 3-8 ATS their L11 after an ATS Win and 6-18-2 in their L26 Conference Quarterfinals games (25%).

Portland is also 0-5 ATS in its L5 game played on Wednesday while the Clippers are 5-0 ATS their L5 here at Home at the friendly confines of the Staples Center as well as 5-0 ATS against teams with a losing Road Record and 6-2 ATS in their L8 against the Northwest Division.

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Free NBA Pick: Clippers Moneyline -130, 'Under' 198½
Best Line Offered: at Intertops, at Heritage
Final Score Prediction: Clippers 101 Trail Blazers 90