The Warriors and I crashed and burned in our team prop betting picks for Game 3 of the NBA Finals. However, we had a nice night of player props, and I am still 4-2 in my team props for the Finals.
Alternate Point Spread
While I doubt the game will be as lopsided as Game 3, (It can't be, right?) the Cavaliers were rolling in every aspect of Game 3. Their two remaining stars shot the lights out of the ball, and almost every shot for the Cavaliers' starters was going in. It might be that kind of offensive night for the Cavs once again, but I doubt they win by a margin of double figures even if they do win at all. That's why I am playing it a bit safe once again, and going with the Cavs at -3 (+100) on the alternate point spread from Bet365.
The Cavs at home have been a completely different animal so far in the postseason. Their Offensive Rating is nearly 120 points per 100 possessions at home, compared to 107 on the road. Their defense has also ratcheted up at home, as they have a Defensive Rating of 96.1 at home, compared to more than 110 on the road in the playoffs. If this kind of trend continues tonight in Cleveland, I see no reason why the Cavs can't win this game by more than three points. The Warriors would have to get stellar games from their own big three, as well as someone off the bench to get a win against this Cavs team if they play the same as in Game 3.
I am a bit tempered though from others on the site who are calling for another blowout. It's very hard to beat any team three times in a row, and it's almost just as hard to beat the Warriors twice in as many games. There is no way the Dubs turn the ball over 18 times again and get outrebounded like they did in Game 3. However, I still see Lebron James willing his team to a tied series.
My Pick: Cavaliers -3 (+100) at Bet365
Game 4 First Half O/U 103.5
I'm pretty sure Pete Loshak is on the same play here in Game 4, and while both of these offensive have the ability to get hot, considering how well the Cavs have played on defense at home in the playoffs, I don't see the Warriors busting out a huge offensive game here. In the same tune, the Warriors played way too good of defense in Games 1 and 2 before getting blasted for 120 points in Game 3, so I expect at least some turnaround in that department.
However, the first half almost always seems to be lower scoring between these two, even if they are both playing faster. There were only 94 points scored between these two in Game 3's first half, and if you look at some of their first half totals from Cleveland in last year's Finals, you can see that the under might be a solid play here tonight.
IN Games 3 and 4 of last season's Finals, the first half total was only 81 in Game 3 and 96 in Game 4. With a first half total of 103 ½, this tells me the under is the best play for our first half betting pleasure. I expect both teams to play good defense in the beginning of this one, and for one of them to grab hold in the second half and win the game.
My Pick: UNDER 103.5 (-105) at Bovada