NBA Betting: Warriors To Extend Series Against Thunder In Style

Thursday, May 26, 2016 12:31 PM GMT

The Warriors, down 3-1 in the series, are on the brink of as they host the Thunder in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals. Need a NBA pick for the game? We got you covered.

Oklahoma City Thunder (66-31 SU, 46-47-4 ATS)
The Thunder are in the driver seat after smoking the Warriors 118-94 on Tuesday night to a take a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals. Scoring 107.7 points per game on 46.1 percent shooting, OKC is 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS in the postseason.

Russell Westbrook recorded a triple-double with 36 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists in Game 4. It was his 19th of the season, and first in this year's playoffs.OKC is 19-0 SU and 14-4-1 ATS when Westbrook achieves the special feat.

With Westbrook and Kevin Durant on the court, OKC is 10-20 SU and 15-15 against the NBA odds as a road dog in the postseason in their career, despite taking three of its last four. Strong defense has claimed the team victory, holding the Spurs and Warriors to 96.7 points on 42.3 percent shooting in the victories.

Efficiency from the 3-point area is key for the Thunder to close-out last year's champions. When Durant and company own a better shooting percentage from behind the arc, they are 14-1 SU and 15-0 ATS in their last 15 postseason games, including besting the Warriors in the three Conference Finals wins. Golden State is 16-11 SU and just 3-23-1 ATS when allowing a better 3-point percentage to opponents this season. In the playoffs, with Curry logging minutes, the Warriors are 6-14 SU and 3-17 ATS all-time when losing the long-range battle.

Golden State Warriors (82-14 SU, 50-42-4 ATS)
The Dubs dropped back-to-back games for the first time all season at Chesapeake Energy Arena, and have not lost three games in a row since Nov. 23, 2013. The regular-season record holder find themselves in a must-win situation on Thursday, looking to bounce back from consecutive 20-plus point blowouts. Nine teams have overcome 3-1 deficits to win-out in NBA postseason history. Since 2002, one seeds are 10-3 SU and 7-6 ATS in Game 5 when trailing 3-1 in a series.

It was another tough night for Golden State's stars. Although Klay Thompson finally showed up with 26 points, MVP Steph Curry was 6 of 20 from the field for 19 points, while Draymond Green, the home fans' target of hostility following a flagrant foul on Steve Adams in Game 3, was limited to six points, six turnovers, and 11 rebounds. Altogether, the 51 points are the third fewest for the trio this postseason.

OKC present a myriad of matchup problems for the Warriors, and outscored coach Steve Kerr's starting five 55-13 over the past two games. Green, the NBA's regular-season leader in plus/minus rating, is completely stymied, struggling with the Thunders' quickness, long arms, and shot-blocking abilities. Averaging 15.9 points per game in the postseason, he has scored more than this just twice in 18 career matchups with OKC.

Golden State is 26-7 SU and 20-13 ATS in its last 33 home playoff games. Defense typically dominates. Only nine foes have reached their projected team total in regulation time during the run.

Final Analysis
Coach Billy Donavan's squad has held the Warriors to 105 points or fewer in three of four in the series, but may find it difficult to pin the scoring machine down in Game 5. Over the last two seasons, Curry and company average 114.7 points against OKC at Oracle Arena, and scored 105 points or fewer in a three-game stretch just once all season. Moreover, the Thunder have failed to eclipse their projected team total in their last five trips to East Bay. Look for Golden State to extend the series, and in style. Warriors -7 is the free NBA pick.

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NBA Pick: Warriors -7
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek
Record YTD: 72-48-1 (-106); NBA Playoffs: 12-4 (-109)