NBA Betting - Full Of Chalk Rockets Await The Baby Lakers

James Harden Of The Houston Rockets

Wednesday, December 7, 2016 1:14 PM GMT

The Houston Rockets have done a fine job of pounding the NBA odds, but are they laying a few too many points for Wednesday's game against the Los Angeles Lakers?

Record: 2-0 ATS

Daryl Morey always has something up his sleeve. The GM of the Houston Rockets is one of the sharpest minds in all of sports – he co-founded the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and he was one of the first people to emphasize 3-point shooting. Charles Barkley may not like him, but Barkley's a gambling man, and the Rockets are the most profitable team in the West at 14-7 SU and ATS. I'm sure he'll find it in his heart to forgive Morey.


But has the marketplace already caught up? The Rockets are 12-point home favorites on the NBA odds board for Wednesday's game (8:00 p.m. ET) versus the Los Angeles Lakers, who have dropped three straight to fall to 10-13 SU and 11-11-1 ATS. We don't have enough consensus data to produce a report just yet, but Houston had a limited opening at –10.5, so it's fairly safe to assume the action has been on the home side. Copious action.

Eric's Trip

Seems legit. The data disciples at FiveThirtyEight project the Rox to win this game 84 percent of the time, giving us an Elo-based spread of... drum roll please... Houston –10.5. Of course, Elo has no knowledge of L.A.'s injury situation; point guards D'Angelo Russell (+1.3 BPM) and Jose Calderon (–2.7 BPM) are both out Wednesday, along with SG Nick Young (+0.5 BPM) and possibly PF Larry Nance, Jr. (+2.7 BPM), who has really stepped up his game as a sophomore. That would explain the early rush of NBA picks for Houston.

Then again, Elo doesn't know about Rockets PG Eric Gordon (–0.9 BPM). He rolled his right ankle during Monday's 107-106 win over the Boston Celtics (+5.5 away), but the word on the street is that Gordon will play Wednesday. He's provided an offensive spark for Houston, hitting 40-percent from downtown while SG James Harden (+9.8 BPM) goes nuclear in his new role as a point-wing-something.

This just in: You can add Lakers center Tarik Black (+0.1 BPM) to the injured list, as well. This is a good young team with oodles of upside, but with so many people MIA, there's no way we can recommend them ATS.

Free NBA Pick: Rockets –12

Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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