Free NBA Picks - Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat

Miami Heat players in court

Wednesday, December 14, 2016 5:10 PM GMT

Miami is starting to get healthier, but either way, there might be a ton of points scored in this game. With the Pacers playing faster and their offense starting to come around, I see the NBA Odds for the total in this one just a bit too low.

Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat

Indiana has started to play like the team I thought they would be going into the season, but now they face a nice test on Wednesday as they start a three-game road trip in Miami. The Heat are getting healthier too, as Justise Winslow practiced on Tuesday and it looks like he has a chance to play.

With odds basically at an even PK, it's tough to bet on either one of these teams. However, with a total of just 205, the over looks like it has some sneaky value on for our NBA expert picks.

The Pacers have given up a ton of points on the road this season and I don't see that changing, even against an offensively challenged team like Miami. The Pacers have allowed over 115 points per game on the road and while that was due mostly to big losses in Golden State and Portland, if you take those two out Indiana is still allowing 108.1 on the road.

The Heat, on the other hand, have also been a different team lately on defense at home. Miami has allowed over 109 points per game at home over their last four and while Winslow's absence has had a lot to do with that, if the Pacers choose to play fast and loose tonight, it will be an easy over cash.

With the Pacers playing faster at a pace of nearly 98 possessions per game, I see them speeding up the Heat and cashing the over. Indiana's defense is so bad that even if the game gets slowed down the over should still be a fine play.

Free NBA Pick: Over 205

Best Line offered: at JustBet

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3068570, "sportsbooksIds":[1275,123,186,180,1096], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]