Free NBA Pick: Take Thunder Plus Points To Bounce Back vs. Warriors

Sunday, May 22, 2016 12:00 PM GMT

Today the series goes to Oklahoma City and NBA odds have made the visiting Golden State Warriors a road favorite. Can OKC stop Golden State from taking the series lead?

The NBA Odds have come out making OKC a +2.5 underdog like at -105. I am 2-0 in this series so far and look to make it 3-0 with my NBA pick taking the Thunder plus the points. Looking closely there is good value in backing OKC because they have some good matchups and they believe they can beat Golden State.

Oklahoma City Thunder
In game two Oklahoma City shot 45% from the floor and 30% from distance along with a 16 turnovers that led to 23 Golden State points. The turnovers really hurt them and that is something that looked like would be negated after their stellar second half play in game one. However, Golden State really got after them on the defensive end for most of the game and especially in the second half to limit OKC and their scoring.

What surprised me the most was that Golden State outrebounded OKC 54-45 because the Thunder are the best rebounding team in the NBA. Some of their poor lack of play can be attributed to the fact that they did win game one, which possibly lead to them lacking a little intensity in game two because beating Golden State two times in a row on their court is almost impossible.

Also, OKC did not get to the line very much and that statistic flip-flopped from game one to game two with the Thunder getting to the line 32 times in game one but just 19 in game two, and Golden State switching from 17 to 28. Honestly, I did not expect OKC to have much of a chance in this game two but I really like them to come into this game ready to counterpunch the Warriors. They kept Golden State down in attempts which is a good formula for them going forward.


Golden State Warriors
In game two Golden State shot 50% of the field and 46% from distance while only giving up 12 turnovers leading just to 12 OKC points. I picked Golden State minus the points in that game to because I anticipated this type of showing where they would come out and take things up a notch on the defensive end while shooting much better.

They beat OKC in a couple areas that I expect to be flip-flopped tonight like, as mentioned, the free-throw disparity and rebounds. As well, Golden State was better in the paint outscoring OKC 48-42, but don't expect that to happen in this game three. Defensively they did a nice job overall against the Thunder limiting them across the board percentagewise but now on the road in Oklahoma City this will be a much more difficult task.

I am not anticipating for them to be able to lock down the Thunder for the most part on the road and conversely for OKC to be able to get some stops themselves against the league's best offense. This is a really crucial game for Golden State but I will not be surprised if they come out with the loss.

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Free NBA Pick: Thunder +2.5 -105
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline