After a couple of off days we have gone 3-1 in our last four prop betting picks, and Sunday’s Game 7 between the Raptors and Heat brings some nice prop betting value.
Luol Deng O/U 7.5 rebounds
The saying “if it ain't broke, don't fix it,” is easily about Luol Deng's rebounding prop NBA picks for these playoffs. With the Heat down to playing Deng and Justice Winslow at center, both players have been grabbing a lot of rebounds. However, after dominating the sportsbooks for a couple of games with Deng's rebounding totals, bet365 has gotten wise on our value train. They now have Deng at 7.5 rebounds, but they have enticed us with odds of +120 for the over in Game 7.
If Game 7 goes like I think it will, there should be a lot of rebounds up for grabs. As long as Bismack Biyombo isn't grabbing a ton of boards again in Game 7, Deng should be the next highest rebounder here on Sunday afternoon. Deng is averaging about a rebound every five minutes of playing time, so while it's going to be close, and while he might need a few lucky ones to fall in his lap, that means if he plays another 40 minutes on Sunday, we should expect about eight rebounds from Deng in this one.
With NBA odds of +120, that puts this one over the top for me. While I would rather have 6.5 be the total and have lots of chalk, the +120 price puts this one over the top. Deng has a total rebounding rate of 10.3 percent this postseason, and his defensive rebounding rate is 15.2 percent. If he is playing more power forward and center, which have been the only two positions he has occupied this postseason, he should have eight or more rebounds on Sunday.
My Pick: Over 7.5 +120
Best Line Offered: at Bet365
Goran Dragic O/U 24.5 points, rebounds and assists
Here is a simple formula for Goran Dragic and the Heat this postseason. If he scored 15 or more points, the Heat are 5-1 SU. He dropped 30 points in Game 6 and helped them force a Game 7. In games where he scores 21 or more, the Heat are 3-0. He has to remain aggressive here on the road if the Heat want to get to the Eastern Conference Finals, and I think everyone on Miami knows this.
Of course the Heat are going to need a team effort, but if they have Dragic pushing the pace, he is either going to get an easy basket on the other end, or assist for another Heat player. So far in this series, Dragic is averaging over 19 points per game, and he is averaging eight total rebounds and assists in this series, and more importantly, his advanced statistics tell us that he is poised to have at least 25 total points rebounds and assists.
Dragic actually has a defensive rebounding rate close to Deng's this postseason, and he is averaging over five per game in this series. If we can expect another five rebounds, which he has had in four of the six games of this series, it looks like this prop is easy money. His assist rate is over 19 percent, and his Usage Rate is 25.7 percent.
If you add his Usage and Assist rates, Dragic is either scoring or assisting on nearly half of Miami's field goals, and if that is a rate from the entire playoffs. His rates for this series have gone up after his 30-point performance in Game 6, and considering he is averaging 17 shot attempts per game over the last three games, I see no way Dragic falls below 25 points, rebounds and assists.
My Pick: Over 24.5 -120
Best Line Offered: at Bovada