Nobody knows what to expect from Ronda Rousey anymore – which makes the props market for Friday’s title fight against Amanda Nunes your go-to source for sharp UFC picks.
Betting against Ronda Rousey wasn't a good idea – until it was. For three years, the once-dominant Women's Bantamweight champion obliterated everything in her path, then Holly Holm (+450) took the strap off her in November 2015, and we haven't seen Rousey since. She isn't even doing the usual media work for Friday's big return fight at UFC 207 against the new champion, Amanda Nunes. But Rousey is still available between –130 and –150 on the UFC odds board as we go to press.
In theory, Nunes is the right UFC pick for this matchup, but it might be too late now that she's moved from +160 at the open to as low as +105. It would have been a speculative pick anyway; again, Rousey hasn't fought in over a year. So instead of the money line, let's head over to the UFC props market and find something a little more reliable.
It wouldn't surprise us if Rousey (12-1 lifetime, 6-1 UFC) won or lost on Friday, but we'd be shocked if the main event went the distance +650 at 5Dimes. None of her 13 previous fights did; eight of them ended inside the first minute, by knockout or armbar. Nunes (13-4 lifetime, 6-1 UFC) doesn't get paid by the hour, either. Only two of her fights went to the judges' scorecards, most recently in March when Nunes earned a unanimous decision over Valentina Shevchenko (–130) at UFC 196.
Don't forget that Friday's title bout is scheduled for five rounds. Almost all the other fights in question were for three rounds. That extra buffer makes it a lot easier to risk a mouthful of chalk at –1175 for Rousey-Nunes to end inside the distance. You can peel off some of that chalk by betting that the fight won't make it to Round 5 (–920), Round 4 (–628), or even Round 3 (–385). Neither woman has seen Round 4 in her career, so that's our recommendation here at the ranch. Enjoy the show, and may the Octagon be with you.