KO the Books With These UFC 204 Best Value Picks

Gegard Mousasi after a fight

Friday, October 7, 2016 10:04 PM GMT

The UFC invades Manchester this weekend as the hometown champion, Michael Bisping will defend the UFC middleweight title in a rematch over a half decade in the making against Dan Henderson. Our professional handicapper 

It's a fight that many have complained about considering that Henderson isn't even ranked in the top 10. However, the fight holds a ton of sentimental value as Henderson will get his last shot at UFC gold in a rematch against a man who he infamously knocked out at UFC 100. Win or lose, this is the last we'll see of Dan Henderson.

But you're not here for sentimental value. What you want is betting value. So let's examine the main event and the rest of the card and then you can check the best sportsbooks list once you are ready to start betting.

Dan Henderson vs Michael Bisping

Despite the fact that Henderson is ranked #13 in the middleweight division, there's a reason why he's only a +175 underdog across the board. Aside from brutally knocking out Bisping over seven years ago, the fact is that not everyone is sold on Bisping yet. Yes, he's the champion and won it with a shocking first-round knockout of Luke Rockhold. He also holds a victory over the legendary Anderson Silva. However, in a sport where anything can and will happen, nobody is willing to count out Dan Henderson's patented “H-Bomb” right hand. For that reason, there's some value in +175 at WagerWeb although I wish it was closer to a +250 before I urge everyone to run and throw money at Henderson as your UFC pick.

The fact of the matter is that Henderson can beat anybody with that right hand. But if it doesn't land, he's going to lose. For that reason, if you can find a good line on a Henderson knockout, take it. He's not going to win a decision. As a matter of fact, Dan Henderson hasn't won a decision in nearly five years. Since beating Shogun Rua by unanimous decision in a hellacious fight that took Fight of the Year honors back in 2011, Henderson has gone a paltry 3-6. All three victories have come courtesy of the knockout, including a rousing comeback victory over Hector Lombard in June that put him in a position to face Bisping. It's all or nothing for Dan Henderson and there's less than a 1% chance he wins a decision over the tactical Bisping.

As for the mouthy Brit, he's a -205 at Jazz, which means that you should steer clear of betting on him. He should win but there's just not enough value to confidently drop your hard earned cash on him. He's had a hell of a run lately, but if you look closer you won't see any signs of true dominance. One can argue that Rockhold beat himself by overlooking Bisping and the Silva victory was gifted after The Spider seemed to knock The Count senseless at the end of the third round. Prior to that fight, he barely squeaked by Thales Leites. Nothing here demonstrates dominance and while his title was earned, it's difficult to believe that he'll hang on to it for very long.

Ultimately, the Henderson odds are enticing, although not overwhelming enough to place a confident wager on. But if you can find Henderson by knockout, take it.

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Vitor Belfort vs Gegard Mousasi

Another intriguing fight is Vitor Belfort vs. Gegard Mousasi. Belfort is a +275 for the simple fact that he is a totally different fighter when he's not fighting in Brazil.

Although he was steamrolled by Jacare Souza in Brazil in May, Belfort has been wickedly good in his home country. He's 5-1 with 5 knockouts in Brazil. However, this fight certainly isn't anywhere near home and Mousasi has been awarded a -325 advantage at BetOnline. However, that line may be a bit too wide for my liking. Even though Mousasi should be the favorite, you can't discount Belfort's fast hands and power. At Bet365 +275, I'm willing to throw money down on Belfort with confidence that he can pull off the upset. Since rejoining the UFC back in 2009, Belfort has only lost to champions or former champion (Silva, Weidman, Jon Jones and Jacare). He also owns victories over Luke Rockhold and Michael Bisping.

Mousasi has looked good, but he hasn't exactly defeated the finest the middleweight division has to offer. Thiago Santos, Thales Leites, Costas Philippou and Dan Henderson are solid names but none in the top 5. For that reason, I'm inclined to bet on Belfort.

So, there you have it, a pair of underdogs that you can feel comfortable betting on. Dan Henderson via knockout and Vitor Belfort as a +275 underdog.

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