There are just four races left until NASCAR’s 2016 Sprint Cup Chase to the title gets underway starting this Saturday night with the running of the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. The green flag at Bristol Motor Speedway is set to wave at 8 p.m. (ET) and all the racing action will be broadcast nationally on NBC Sports Network.
Sprint Cup's last time out on the road course at Watkins Glen, Denny Hamlin doubled his win total on the year by taking the checkered flag. Joey Logano finished second in that race and Brad Keselowski rounded out the Top 3.
The following is a look at my top valued favorite, contender and longshot to win this Saturday night at Bristol based on betting odds as provided by TopBet.
Top Valued Favorite
Joey Logano has been listed at +800 betting odds to win this week and I love the value in that number, given both his current form and recent success in this event. Before turning in a solid run at Watkins Glen two weeks ago, he almost guided the No. 22 Ford to the Winner's Circle at New Hampshire last month with a third-place finish. He is currently in sixth place in the Sprint Cup standings with 652 total points, and along with his earlier victory this season at Michigan, in solid shape for this year's Chase. Earlier this season he squeezed out a 10th-place finish in the first race at Bristol, but the reason that I still like his odds to win on Saturday night is the fact that Logano will be going for the three-peat after winning the last two NRA Night Races at Bristol.
Top Valued Contender
Kyle Busch +500 at Paddy Power is the top favorite to win this week, but I am going with his older brother as my top valued contender in this race. Kurt Busch has been listed at +1200 betting odds to win for the second time this season after taking the checkered flag in the first race at Pocono in early June. Since then, the No. 41 Chevrolet placed fourth at Kentucky before failing to finish any better than 10th in its last four events. While current form may be off a bit, a third-place run at Bristol in the first race here this season does add some value to his odds. In the early 2000's, Busch was almost unbeatable on this track with four Sprint Cup victories in a span of five races.
Top Valued Longshot
It is getting to be crunch time for a number of drivers on the bubble to make it into this year's Chase. Sitting in 15th place right now with 520 points is Kyle Larson, so you know that the motivation level for the No. 42 Chevrolet racing team is sky high right now. His betting odds to win at Bristol suggest this might be a tall task at +2000, but I still see some solid value in those odds. Larson has been fairly competitive the past few weeks with a fifth-place finish at Indianapolis followed by a sixth-place run at Pocono. As far as his five previous races at this track in the Sprint Cup series, his best finish came in the first race here last season when he placed seventh.
Betting Odds for other Notable Drivers
The last two Sprint Cup champs top the list this week with Kyle Busch coming into this race as a +500 favorite to notch his fifth point-race victory this season followed by Kevin Harvick at +650. Next on the list is Brad Keselowski at +750 after posting back-to-back Top 3 finishes in his last two races. Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson, and Carl Edwards join Logano at +800 betting odds to win and Denny Hamlin is next at +900. Jeff Gordon will once again be behind the wheel of the No. 88 Chevrolet in place of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and his odds to win on Saturday night are set at +1600.