Weather conditions in Brazil and the last two recurring aces on American soil make Hamilton or Rosberg an attractive bet, but Red Bull drivers show up as punters’ favorite for a surprise!
The latest odds at the betting exchanges are leaning towards the side of Hamilton, driving the professional punters away from Rosberg. His odds drifted from +180 to +250 at WilliamHill, which are one of the highest odds available. At the current levels, they consider the stake to end short or being without true value. Be that as it may, Rosberg's performance in terms of consistency is far from a straight line.
Recent forecasts about him winning the championship showed several sharp fluctuations. Money may be earned if the smart player predicts at the right time the turning point, betting against the odds.
Last week, the German appeared very confident, saying in a statement that he will try to “go for the win” in Sao Paulo. He also noted that he has always done pretty well on this track. On his side, Hamilton said his aim is to win the race, but speaking to the journalists, he seemed uncertain about the outcome.
If indeed Hamilton proves weak in his chances to beat Rosberg at Interlagos, the German may sweep earlier the title celebrating his victory in Brazil instead of Abu Dhabi. That would kill any hopes and desires that hold Hamilton's fans excited for a third Championship win in a row, especially after the double score by the Briton. It was at the surprise of many when Hamilton won both the US and the Mexican Grand Prix in October.
A number of Formula 1 experts say that we should hold our horses and sit tight before we make any final decision about the outcome of the tussle between the two drivers - who manage to monopolize the first positions in this year's competitions, let aside a couple of races.
That said, Hamilton's previous historic records at Autodromo are not full of laurels. The Briton has never won the track of Sao Paulo yet poses as the clear favorite (-120 at Bet365). And suppose Rosberg does not finish first at the ending line of the race, the German would still have secured the title if Hamilton follows at a tiny fraction of a second behind.
On the other hand, the weather conditions seem to favor Hamilton. It has been as wet as it could be this season in Brazil, with rain showers each and every day during the week, keeping the temperature in moderate levels. By the way, moisture is measured below the 50% mark, which will make the life of both humans and machines easier on Sunday.
Hamilton has proved to excelling in rainy conditions and taking into account the momentum he has gained in the last two competitions, he may want to keep the interest alive by pushing harder for the first place.
Jenson Button may also be benefiting from the rain if the weather predictions are proven right in qualifying or the race. The driver clinched the 2009 World Championship on exactly that same track. This is worth mentioning for the sake of general information but it would be as a dream-come-true if someone expects to make money backing Button on this race anywhere between the first six positions (-140 odds for a point finish).
On the other hand, Red Bull drivers, Ricciardo and Verstappen seem to do well. Players show a steady preference at the team since it has been clear lately that Ferrari colors appear less frequently on the podium next to Mercedes. The duo works smoothly together, which could lead to some kind of surprise in Brazil. Bettors are looking for that surprise, judging by the charts above!
Given the analysis above, I'd consider backing either Ricciardo or Verstappen huge odds and hope for the best. Betting on long shots is not easy and quite discouraging as we are expected to win quite rarely. However, when we score, the rewards usually make up our losses. Let's not forget the bragging rights afterwards!