Let’s dive in and come up with a safe yet value-laden and entertaining approach to the men's soccer semifinals with three weighted picks as Brazil plays Honduras, and Germany faces Nigeria.
Brazil vs. Honduras: Odds Overview
Historic Maracanã Stadium in Rio de Janeiro is the site of the first Men's Olympics Soccer Semifinal match between Neymar and host nation Brazil and upstart Honduras. Oddsmakers have made Brazil huge -450 favorites (at Bet365) with Honduras priced at +1,200 as monster underdogs with a Draw priced at +500. The Total (Goals) in this contest has opened up at 2½ with the 'Over' priced at -117 and the 'Under' priced at -105.
Wednesday Value-Seeking Approaches Semifinal 1
With the No. 9-ranked (FIFA) A Seleção priced as high as a chalky -450 and Honduras looking to make this into a Defensive battle if at all possible but with top skill players on its Roster like Neymar and Gabriel Barbosa, Brazil will be tough to outscore and the site and national Pride factors play heavily into this handicap, although finding a way to get some perceived value when the chalk is priced as high (now) as that aforementioned -450 (9/2 Fractional, 1.22 Decimal) A Seleção are will take some creativity in all markets.
Brazil trickled through Group A play, drawing with South Africa (0-0), also tying with Iraq (0-0) and then shutting out Denmark, 4-0. In Knockout Stage play, Brazil defeated Colombia, 2-0 in the Quarterfinals as Neymar scored in the 13th minute and Luan (Grêmio) in the 83rd minute to help GK Weverton (Atlético Paranaense) and the Brazilians stay unbeaten and unscored upon in a tournament in which they have qualified in 12 times but still never won. Honduras got through Group D play defeating Algeria, 3-2 in its opener, Los Catrachos lost to Portugal in its next group game, 2-1, and then Honduras played to a Draw against Argentina, 1-1. In its Quarterfinal Knockout Stage match, Honduras defeated South Korea, 1-0, as Alberth Ellis (Olimpia) scored the game-winner in the 59-minute mark.
Here, it seems after four consecutive Clean Sheets in the Quarterfinals, we could see another shutout with any close calls going the Brazilians way. So instead of laying all that lumber maybe the best value approach here would be to spread out three bets with 50% on the Under 2½ because of GK's “Buba” López and Weverton, 40% on the ‘Brazil To Win To Nil' Prop and the remaining 10% on the Neymar Anytime Goalscorer Prop as the 24-year-old Mogi das Cruzes, São Paulo native and Barcelona Winger will be absolutely foaming at the mouth to get a goal in this situation and send his native Brazil on to the Gold Medal match on Aug. 20 at Maracanã Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.
PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Brazil 2 Honduras 0
SUMMER OLYMPICS SOCCER VALUE PICK: Brazil-Honduras Under 2½ -103 (at Marathon)
SUMMER OLYMPICS SOCCER VALUE PROPS PICKS: Brazil To Win to Nil -137 (at BetVictor), Neymar Anytime Goalscorer -150 (at William Hill)
Nigeria vs. Germany: Odds Overview
Arena Corinthians in São Paulo is the site of the second Men's Olympics Soccer Semifinal match between defending World Cup champions Germany and the vastly underrated Nigeria. Oddsmakers have made Germany small +100 (Even money) favorites (at William Hill) with Nigeria priced at +240 as the big underdog with a Draw priced at +240. The Total (Goals) in this match has been set at 2½ with the Over and Under both priced at -110 (William Hill).
Wednesday Value-Seeking Approaches Semifinal 2
DFB-Elf (DFB Eleven) survived Group C Stage play, drawing with Mexico (2-2) and South Korea (3-3) before pounding poor Fiji, 10-0 to finish with a robust 15 goals in group play. Germany then defeated Portugal, 4-0 in the Semifinals as Germany exploded for four 2nd Half goals to move on to this Semifinal match. Nigeria made it through through Group B play, outscoring Japan, 5-4 in its opener, shutting out Sweden, 1-0 and then losing 2-0 to Colombia in the group finale. The Super Eagles then ousted Denmark in the Semifinals as Jon Obi Mikel and Umar scored for Nigeria to help it advance to this match vs. Germany.
In this one, Germany should have the slight confidence, expectation and experience edges, the perceived betting value here lies with the Germans somehow winning and finding a way to advance to the Gold Medal game, meaning the To Qualify market may have the best ability to so seek financial award at a fair price, with the prospective sports gambler (punter) able to avoid a potential Loss should this take more than 90 minutes plus added Injury Time. With a powerful attacking front, this Germany side could potentially go Over the Total themselves and the Total Germany Goals Over 2½ may be worth the ride.
PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Germany 3 Nigeria 1
SUMMER OLYMPICS SOCCER VALUE PICKS: Germany +108 (at Pinnacle), Over 2½ -110 (Coral)
SUMMER OLYMPICS SOCCER VALUE PROPS PICKS: Germany To Qualify -175 (at Coral), Total Germany Goals Over 2½ +333 (at William Hill)