Betting NFL Strategies Based On Weather & Latitude

NFL Betting Odds

Friday, July 15, 2016 9:37 PM GMT

Mother Nature with her Cold, Wind, Rain and Snow often have a real effect on NFL games played in Outdoor stadiums. So do the northernmost teams in the league have some kind of hidden Weather Advantage in the last half of the Regular Season and are there Trends that hint at a betting edge in those games?

Let's see how the four northernmost NFL teams with Outdoor stadia did ATS in the last half of the year the L4 seasons and offer up some Futures Book NFL picks on the most remote NFL team—the Seattle Seahawks—after our findings.

Have the Four Northernmost NFL Teams Covered ATS More in the Winter Months?
The four NFL teams which the most isolated, perceived Northern advantage and who play in Open (Outdoor) stadiums are the Buffalo Bills (Latitude 42.8864° N), the New England Patriots (Latitude 42.0654° N), the Green Bay Packers (Latitude 44.5192° N) and the Seattle Seahawks (Latitude 47.6062° N). The Minnesota Vikings also lie in that northernmost geographical NFL area (Latitude 44.9778° N) and could have (in the past) been analyzed as a team with a potential Weather Edge, but with the completion of the new, fixed-Roof US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis—set to see its first NFL Regular Season game on Sept. 18 when Aaron Rodgers and the Packers visit in an early Sunday Night Football NFC North showdown (MIN PK, NFL Games of the Year, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL odds)—Adrian Peterson and Minnesota (9/4 to win NFC North, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook and at Bovada.) now have the luxury of a fixed Roof, like their Motown-NFC North neighbors-rivals in Detroit (Latitude 42.3314° N) do with Ford Field. So anything above Latitude 42° seems far enough North to be perceived as an edge for the Home team and a hinderance for the visitors, especially when the temperature starts to drop in late October, November, December and January at these Sites. So Chicago (Latitude 41.8781° N), Cleveland (Latitude 41.4993° N) and New York City (Latitude 40.7128° N) are all perceived to be too far “south” to be Cold enough or have strong enough weather conditions to consistent give a perceived Weather edge to the Bears, Browns, Giants and Jets, the latter two who share a stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey (MetLife Stadium).


So the labwork here comes down to analyzing whether or not the Bills, Patriots, Packers and Seahawks have some kind of Homefield ATS edge in the 2nd Half of their 16-game Regular Season schedules in the colder months of October, November, December and January. Let's see.

Buffalo Bills
2015 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 3-0 ATS
2014 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 2-1 ATS
2013 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 2-1 ATS
2012 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 2-1 ATS
Record: 9-3 ATS (75.0%) over L4 seasons

New England Patriots
2015 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 2-1-1 ATS
2014 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 3-1 ATS
2013 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 3-1 ATS
2012 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 3-2 ATS
Record: 11-5-1 ATS (68.7%) over L4 seasons

Green Bay Packers
2015 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 1-4 ATS
2014 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 3-1 ATS
2013 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 0-4 ATS
2012 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 4-0 ATS
Record: 8-9 ATS (47.1%) over L4 seasons

Seattle Seahawks
2015 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 3-2 ATS
2014 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 3-0-1 ATS
2013 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 3-2 ATS
2012 Home Record L8 Regular Season Games: 4-1 ATS
Record: 13-5-1 (72.2%) over L4 seasons

Bills, Patriots, Packers, Seahawks Worth Backing at Home in Last Half of Season?
So are we on to something here? The four northernmost Latitude teams in the NFL who play in Outdoor stadia have gone a combined 41-22-2 ATS (65.1%) over the L4 seasons in Home games played in their L8 Regular Season games. And it we toss out the schizophrenic Packers (5/9 to win NFC North, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 8-9 ATS mark and just look at the Bills, Patriots and Seahawks, we find those three teams with a combined 33-13-2 ATS record (71.7%) and a trio of teams who currently may be offering a chance to profit at the betting windows simply because of their Geographical location and the problems the Winter Weather conditions may pose for opponents who play in warmer climes. It's that simple. And something to pay attention to this coming NFL Regular Season although it's always best to pick your spots.

And a look at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year and the individual games that fit this particular scheduling reality for the three more successful ATS teams in this theoretically Weather-related Trend (Bills, Patriots, Seahawks)—the Packers have just been too choppy ATS at Lambeau Field in the L4 years—we can only find a couple of candidates for a good Futures Bets on individual games.

Three such Week 9-17 games to take a look at involving Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks (5/7 to win NFC West, Westgate at sportsbooks like Las Vegas SuperBook) at CenturyLink Field are in Week 11 against the Philadelphia Eagles (SEA -8½, NFL Games of the Year, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Week 13 against QB Cam Newton the NFC champion Carolina Panthers (SEA -4, NFL Games of the Year, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and in Week 15 against their pesky NFC West rival, the Rams (SEA -8½, NFL Games of the Year, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) who have moved from St. Louis (Edward Jones Dome) to Los Angeles (LA Coliseum) this NFL Offseason and who won't be playing in a Dome anymore. Or a field that catches on Fire before kickoff. There's no place, like Home. There's no place like Home, There's no place like Home. Especially when the Winter Weather comes calling and players used to playing in warmer temperatures at more Southern Latitudes and in Domes just don't perform as well, providing an apparent edge for sports bettors as well as these Northern Latitude teams.

Games Of The Year Picks: Seahawks -4 over Panthers, Week 13; Seahawks -8½ over Rams, Week 15 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)