The ATP World Tour returns to action after the Davis Cup emotions. Join us while we analyze the ATP Quito main draw, as well as the players who may benefit (or struggle) from playing in altitude.
The Ecuador Open takes place in Quito with Clay as the chosen surface.
With an altitude of 9,350ft, Quito presents the most extreme conditions on the ATP World Tour. Before we start our tournament analysis, it's important to understand how this aspect can affect your betting picks. Even though clay usually provides the slowest conditions, there are other factors besides the court surface that can affect the overall speed.
Due to the lower level of air resistance on altitude, the ball travels faster, which makes it easier for the players to win free points on serve. When analyzing closely the matches that took place on the qualifying stage, it's obvious that altitude plays a major role on the player's performance. While the overall average on clay is only 0.33 aces per service game, the 12 matches from the qualifying present an average of 0.55 aces per service game.
In addition to the above, playing on these difficult conditions also requires a period of adjustment. Therefore, it's not only important to keep in mind the player's game style but also their record when playing on altitude and when they arrived in Quito.
Playing in Quito always brings great memories to Victor Estrella Burgos. After winning the title in 2015 and 2016, Estrella Burgos is trying to extend his perfect 10 – 0 record in the capital city of Ecuador.
The game conditions in altitude clearly suit Victor's game style with the Dominican already training for this event for several weeks. Taking a look now to Estrella Burgos' draw on this tournament, the defending champion starts his campaign against Andrej Martin. Even though Martin featured a very good run last year by reaching the 2nd round as a qualifier, it won't be easy for him to present his best tennis this year. Andrej won't have any time to prepare this event since he played the Davis Cup this weekend in Slovakia on Indoor Hard Court. Adding to this, Estrella Burgos was also the player responsible for his elimination last season in Quito with a 7 – 5 6 – 1 triumph. With this in mind, our suggestion is for you to take advantage of the Dominican's betting odds by placing a bet on his -4 spread at -111 at Pinnacle.
Due to Estrella Burgos' phenomenal record in Quito throughout his career, there is also some good value on his outright at +1200 at BetVictor.
Player to Fade
The former world no.13 – Alexandr Dolgopolov – is playing the Ecuador Open for the first time in his career. Despite his undeniable talent, Dolgopolov is also famous for his inconsistency with his -6.90% ROI when priced as the favorite is a good example of that. The Ukrainian is one of the main contenders to lift the trophy in Quito with Bet365 offering +600 for Alexandr to lift the trophy.
Dolgopolov's health problems are one of the main reasons for his inability to perform at a consistent level. Alexandr suffers from a hereditary disorder – Gilbert's Syndrome – which often causes fatigue. It's also important to mention that his condition worsens when he has to cross continents in extensive travel and also when playing in extreme conditions.
Having said that, it's highly unlikely to see Dolgopolov leaving Quito with the trophy. Therefore, we advise you to fade Alexandr on this event, starting with his first-round opponent – Rajeev Ram – who is currently priced at +400 at Bet365.