ATP Monte Carlo Day 5: Top Plays for Thursday

Wednesday, April 13, 2016 9:28 PM GMT

Join us and find out our two top betting selections for the ATP Monte Carlo Day 5. We'll provide a detailed analysis, explaining why you should grab these two valuable tennis picks.

Rafael Nadal (5) vs. Dominic Thiem (12)
We picked Dominic Thiem as the player to keep an eye on this event on our tournament analysis; however, it hasn't been an easy start of tournament for the Austrian. Dominic thought about retiring before his first match against Jan-Lennard Struff due to a cyst on his foot, but decided to play and managed to win after losing the first set. Thiem also had to recover from a set down on his 2nd round match against Taro Daniel, winning the match by 4 – 6 6 – 2 6 – 0.

This is one of Rafael Nadal's favorite tournament on the tour, with the Spaniard winning eight titles in Monte Carlo throughout his career. After Novak Djokovic's elimination, Nadal knows that this is a great chance for him to win his first Masters 1000 event since Madrid 2014. Rafael started his campaign with a 6 – 3 6 – 3 triumph over Aljaz Bedene, in a match where Nadal only allowed Bedene to hit 9 winners.

These two players will face each other for the third time on their careers, with one victory for each one. Nadal won the first match at the French Open in 2014, while Thiem emerged victorious earlier this year in Buenos Aires.

Thiem has been far from consistent this week and is unlikely that his foot problem is completely solved. This will be Dominic's first real test this week after facing two qualifiers on the previous rounds. With Dominic so erratic is hard to see what he can do against a player like Nadal, especially on a clay court. Having said that, we'll take advantage of Rafael's tennis odds value by placing a bet on his spread.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010950, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,92,238,169,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free Tennis Pick: Rafael Nadal -3.5 (+102)
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

Jiri Vesely vs. Gael Monfils (13)
Jiri Vesely featured the biggest upset of the year so far, defeating the world no.1 and Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters defending champion Novak Djokovic. Vesely was close from elimination on his first round match against Teymuraz Gabashvili, with the Czech recovering from a 3 – 6 3 – 5 disadvantage. Jiri played a very smart match, taking advantage of Djokovic's errors and using very often the drop shot, now allowing Djokovic to be comfortable on baseline rallies. However, is important to mention that Novak played a terrible match – 26 winners / 34 unforced errors and 13/25 points won at the net.

The 2015 ATP Monte Carlo Masters semifinalist, Gael Monfils, is looking for another good run on this event. Gael loves to compete on clay court events in French soil, especially the French Open and this Monte Carlo Masters. It has been a good tournament for Monfils so far, winning his two matches against Gilles Muller and Paolo Lorenzi in straight sets. With Djokovic out, Monfils knows that this is a great chance for him the latter stages of this event.

This will be the 2nd career meeting between these two players, with Vesely leading by 1 – 0 on h2h. However, that match took place in Wimbledon two years ago and Gael is known for his lack of effort when he plays on grass.

There isn't much Vesely can do from the baseline on this contest, with Monfils being even more solid than the Czech. The match after a big win is always tough and Vesely might struggle to perform at his best level. With this in mind, we expect Gael to be too good for his opponent and we'll add his spread to our tennis picks as the best play for this match.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3010962, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,93,92,238,169,349], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
Free Tennis Pick: Gael Monfils -4 (-120)
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline